基于“多规”达标约束的高质量发展路径研究——以石林县为例

Research on the High-quality Development Path under Tightening Resource and Environment Constraints:Taking Shilin County as an Example

以石林县为例,利用系统动力学方法,构建石林县“经济—社会—资源—环境”复合系统模型,设置六种情景发展路径进行仿真预测,以“多规”规划目标为政策窗口约束,探索石林县经济社会高质量发展路径。结果表明,协调发展路径是石林县“十四五”时期“多规”达标的最优方案,以此方案发展,各项规划目标将稳定达标,资源环境约束趋紧压力将得到有效缓解,经济社会高质量发展将稳步推进。针对石林县高质量发展面临的挑战,提出三点建议供决策参考。

Taking Shilin County of Yunnan Province as an example,the method of system dynamics was used to construct the“economy-society-resources-environment”composite system model.Six scenario development paths were set up for simulation prediction to explore the high-quality economic and social development path of Shilin County with the“multi-planning”goal as the policy window constraint.The results showed that the coordinated development path would be the best scheme for Shilin County to meet the“multi-planning”standards during the“14th Five-year Plan”period.With the development of this scheme,all planning objectives will reach the standards stably,the tightening pressure of resources and environment constraints will be effectively alleviated,and the highquality economic and social development will be steadily promoted.In view of the challenges faced by the high-quality development of Shilin County,this paper put forward three suggestions for decision-making reference.