江苏地方债务风险测度--基于KMV模型的淮安市债务风险评估分析

Local Debt Risk Measurement of Jiangsu Province--Analysis of Huai'an Debt Risk Assessment Based on KMV Model

地方政府债券融资是支持地区经济发展的重要融资举措,对地方政府债券违约风险进行有效评估,是地方政府风险防控的重要环节,对稳定区域经济发展具有重要意义。以江苏省淮安市为研究对象,运用KMV模型对淮安市2021、2022年地方政府债券的违约概率进行测度。结果表明:淮安市政府一般债券违约概率较高,受宏观经济下行和新冠疫情的叠加冲击,淮安市偿债来源逐渐减少,导致地方债券违约概率提升。最后,结合实证分析结果,讨论并提出防范地方债券违约风险的四点应对建议。

Local government bond financing is an important financing measure to support regional eco-nomic development.Effective assessment of the default risk of local government bonds is an important part of local government risk prevention and control,and is of great significance to stabilizing regional eco-nomic and social development.This paper takes Huai'an,Jiangsu Province as the research object,and uses the KMV model to measure the default probability of local government bonds of Huai'an in 2021 and 2022.The results show that:the general bond default probability of Huai'an government is relatively high,and due to the combined impact of the macroeconomic downturn and Coronavirus pandemic.Huai'an city's debt repayment sources have gradually decreased,resulting in an increase in the default probability of local bonds.Combined with the empirical analysis results,it discusses and proposes four countermea-sures to prevent the default risk of local bonds.