1961—2018年陕西葡萄连阴雨时空特征及对产量的影响

Spatiotemporal characteristics of continuous rain and its impacts on grape yield in Shaanxi Province over 1961-2018

连阴雨是影响陕西葡萄产量和品质的主要因素,构建陕西葡萄连阴雨指标,摸清其时空分布特征以及对产量的影响,对葡萄防灾减灾具有重要意义。文章依据陕西1961—2018年气象数据以及1978—2018年葡萄产量数据,基于构建的陕西葡萄连阴雨指标,采用统计分析、Mann-Kendall(M-K)趋势检验、突变检测和双变量及多变量小波分析方法,分析陕西葡萄连阴雨时空特征及不同时间尺度葡萄连阴雨与气象产量关系。结果显示:1978—2018年,陕西葡萄单产从3166 kg·hm^(-2)增加到15604 kg·hm^(-2),种植面积从600 hm^(2)增加到46680 hm^(2),产量从0.19万t增加到72.84万t。2009、2011、2014和2015年是典型葡萄连阴雨灾害年。在空间上,葡萄连阴雨、轻度连阴雨和重度连阴雨的发生次数、累积时间和累积降雨量都呈现出由北向南增加的特征;在时间上,葡萄连阴雨和重度连阴雨的累积时间、累积降雨量和发生次数呈减少趋势,轻度连阴雨累积时间、累积降雨量和发生次数呈增加趋势。1978—2007年,葡萄气象产量以8~10 a为主要变化周期;2008年以后,以4~6 a为主要变化周期。葡萄气象产量与连阴雨显著相关。

Continuous rain is a major factor affecting the yield and quality of grape in Shaanxi Province.Developing a continuous rain index for vineyard and investigating its spatiotemporal characteristics and impacts on the grape yield were important for disaster prevention and mitigation.For this purpose,we used statistical methods including Mann-Kendall(M-K)trend test,abrupt detection,bivariate and multivariate wavelet analysis to analyze the meteorological data from 1961-2018 and grape yield data from 1978-2018 in Shaanxi Province.The results showed that the yield per hectare,planting area and total yield of grape were increased significantly from 3166 to 15604 kg·hm^(-2),600 to 46680 hm^(2),and 1.9 to 728.4 thousand tons from 1978 to 2018,respectively.2009,2011,2014 and 2015 were typical years with continuous rain disaster for vineyard.Spatially,the frequency,cumulative time and cumulative rainfall of continuous rain,light continuous rain and severe continuous rain for vineyard increased from the north to the south of Shaanxi.Temporally,the cumulative time,cumulative rainfall and frequency of continuous rain and severe continuous rain for vineyard showed a decreasing trend,while the cumulative time,cumulative rainfall and frequency of light continuous rain for vineyard showed an increasing trend from 1961 to 2018.The meteorological yield of grape showed a dominating period of 8-10 years from 1978 to 2007 and a dominating period of 4-6 years after 2008.The meteorological yield of grape was significantly correlated with continuous rain.