四川盆区油菜播期涝渍害时空特征及危险性

Spatiotemporal characteristics and risk of waterlogging damage during rape sowing period in Sichuan Basin,China

探究油菜播种期内的涝渍害时空变化特征及危险性,有利于增加油菜种植气候适应能力,从而为种植结构调整、农业政策制定、防灾减灾提供依据。基于四川盆区105个气象站点逐旬气象数据、油菜生育期观测数据、统计资料,利用显著性检验、地理信息技术,分析了1981—2020年4个年代际油菜播种期涝渍指数、轻/中度涝渍害发生频率、涝渍害危险性的时空变化特征。结果表明:1981—2020年,油菜播期涝渍害指数均值为0.12~0.56,且各年代际、各区域间差异明显。在各年代际,中度涝渍害发生频次均高于轻度涝渍害发生频次。危险性指数的平均值和最高值在1991—2000年均为最低水平,空间分布上盆南和盆周较高,盆西和盆东较低。研究结果与四川盆区气候变化趋势、气象灾害时空分布相吻合。在涝渍害较重且种植面积较大的区域,推广育苗移栽和耐湿品种,减轻涝渍害影响。

Understanding the temporal and spatial characteristics and hazard of waterlogging for rape during the sowing stage is beneficial to enhance the climate adaptation of rape planting,and provide theoretical basis for planting structure adjustment,the formulation of agriculture policy,disaster prevention and reduction.Based on the meteorological data of every ten-day of 105 meteorological stations in Sichuan Basin,the observation data of rape production and agricultural statistics,we analyzed the temporal and spatial variations of waterlogging index,slight/moderate waterlogging frequency and hazard of waterlogging for rape during sowing stage of four decades from 1981 to 2020 by significance test and geographic information technology.The results showed that average value of waterlogging index ranged from 0.12 to 0.56 in the past four decades,with obvious differences in different decades and planting areas of rape.In each decade,the frequency of moderate waterlogging was higher than that of slight waterlogging.The average and maximum of hazard indices were at the lowest level between 1991 and 2000.Spatially,the hazard indices were higher in the southern basin and the region around the basin,but lower in the western and eastern basin.The results are consistent with the trend of climate change in Sichuan Basin and the spatiotemporal characteristics of disasters.In the regions with serious waterlogging damage and large planting area,we should popularize the technique of raising seedlings and transplanting and waterlogging-tolerant variety to reduce waterlogging damage.