中国数字经济核心产业规模的地区差距、空间 效应和动态演进

Regional Disparity,Spatial Effect and Dynamic Evolution of the Scale of the Core Industries in China's Digital Economy

为全面系统地考察我国数字经济核心产业现状及发展趋势,本文对我国2002年、2007年、2012年和2017年各省份的数字经济核心产业规模进行了测算,在此基础上采用空间计量方法和核密度函数模型,分析了我国各省份数字经济核心产业规模的空间相关性以及动态演进过程。结果显示:我国各地区数字经济核心产业规模存在明显的地区差异性和非均衡性;数字经济核心产业规模在不同区域间存在较强的空间自相关性,高值地区主要集中在东部沿海综合经济区、长江中游综合经济区以及部分北部沿海、南部沿海综合经济区,低值地区主要聚集在大西北综合经济区和黄河中游综合经济区;在观测期内,我国数字经济核心产业规模高值区、中值区和低值区的数字经济核心产业规模持续提高,各区间内的地区差距持续变大,在未来几年,该趋势可能会继续保持。本文明确了我国数字经济核心产业规模的发展现状、地区差距和演进趋势,对我国数字经济政策的制定和数字经济区域协同发展有重要意义。

In order to comprehensively and systematically investigate the current situation and development trend of the core industries in China's digital economy,this paper calculates the scale of digital economy core industries in various provinces of China in 2002,2007,2012 and 2017.On this basis,using spatial measurement method and kernel density function model,this paper analyzes the spatial correlation and dynamic evolution process of the scale of digital economy core industries in various provinces of China.The results show that there are obvious regional differences and imbalances in the scale of core industries of digital economy in various regions of China.The scale of China's digital economy core industries has strong spatial autocorrelation among different regions.High-value areas are mainly concentrated in the eastern coastal comprehensive economic zone,the middle reaches of the Yangtze River comprehensive economic zone and some northern and southern coastal comprehensive economic zones,while the low-value areas are mainly concentrated in the northwest comprehensive economic zone and the middle reaches of the Yellow River comprehensive economic zone.During the observation period,the scale of digital economy core industries in high-value areas,medium-value areas and low-value areas continues to increase,and the regional gap in each interval continues to grow.This trend may continue in the next few years.This paper clarifies the development status,regional gap and evolution trend of the scale of the core industries in China's digital economy,which is of great significance to China's digital economy policy formulation and the regional coordinated development of digital economy.