革命老区农业与旅游业融合发展水平测度及动态关系分析——以临沂市为例

Measurement and dynamic relationship analysis of integrated development level of agriculture and tourism in old revolutionary base areas:A case study of Linyi City

选用耦合协调模型、E-G两步检验法、Granger因果检验及脉冲响应函数,实证检验了革命老区临沂市农旅融合协调水平及动态关系。结果表明,2010—2019年,临沂市农业和旅游业耦合度在0.4~0.6,处于起步阶段,融合发展速度较为缓慢;2010—2019年,临沂市农旅融合协调度经历了初级协调(2010—2013年)→中级协调(2014—2018年)→良好协调(2019年)的过程,农旅产业结构较为合理,距优质协调还有一定差距;农业与旅游业存在长期均衡关系和双向因果关系。当给定随机扰动项,整体农业对旅游业发展的影响带动作用明显强于旅游业对农业的影响。针对以上结论提出加强产品创新、巩固农业基础、培养品牌吸引力、统筹管理机制和配套措施等建议。

The coordination level and dynamic relationship of agricultural tourism integration in Linyi City,an old revolutionary base area was empirically tested by using the coupling coordination model,E-G two-step test,Granger causality test and impulse response function.The results showed that from 2010 to 2019,the integration degree of agriculture and tourism in Linyi City was 0.4~0.6,which was in the initial stage,and the integration development speed was relatively slow.From 2010 to 2019,the coordination degree of agricultural tourism integration in Linyi City experienced the process of primary coordination(2010—2013)→intermediate coordi⁃nation(2014—2018)→good coordination(2019).The agricultural tourism industrial structure was relatively reasonable,and there was still a certain gap from high-quality coordination.There was a long-term equilibrium relationship and two-way causality between agriculture and tourism.When the random disturbance term was given,the driving effect of overall agriculture on tourism development was obviously stronger than that of tourism on agriculture.In view of the above conclusions,some suggestions were put forward,such as strengthening product innovation,consolidating the agricultural foundation,cultivating brand attraction,and making overall plans on the management mechanism and supporting measures.