1979年以来5个时期安吉小鲵生境变化分析及预测

Analysis and Prediction on Changes of Hynobius amjiensis Habitat for 5 Periods since 1979

安吉小鲵(Hynobius amjiensis)是1990年在浙江省湖州市安吉县龙王山发现的中国特有珍稀两栖动物,是极危物种。利用1979年、2003年、2011年和2017年分辨率为1 m的遥感影像数据,分析了安吉小鲵国家级自然保护区内安吉小鲵栖息地——泥炭藓(Sphagnum palustre)沼泽的分布与变化;利用2020年分辨率为0.02 m的无人机航拍照片,分析了安吉小鲵栖息地内植物物种的分布状况;利用1970~2018年的年降水量和年平均气温数据,研究气候变化对泥炭藓沼泽变化的影响;利用CA-Markov模型,预测了未来5个时期泥炭藓沼泽和其它类型土地的面积。研究结果表明,1979年、2003年、2011年和2017年,安吉小鲵生境内泥炭藓沼泽的面积分别为0.92 hm^(2)、0.76 hm^(2)、0.72 hm^(2)和0.63 hm^(2),39 a间泥炭藓沼泽的面积减少了31.52%;气候变暖是导致泥炭藓沼泽萎缩和退化的主要原因,泥炭藓的生存空间逐渐被维管植物所侵占;在研究区气候变化趋势保持不变和无人类活动干扰的情景下,经预测,2087年该保护区内的泥炭藓沼泽将完全消失,安吉小鲵的栖息地将不复存在。

Hynobius amjiensis,which is endemic species in China,is a rare amphibian found in the Longwang Mountain,Anji county,Huzhou city,Zhejiang provice in 1990.In this study,firstly,the distribution and changes of sphagnum bogs these are Hynobius amjiensis habitats in Anji National Nature Reserve for Salamanders in Zhejiang were analyzed by using remote sensing images(spatial resolution is 1 m)in 1979,2003,2011,and2017.Then,the distribution of plant species in the Hynobius amjiensis habitats were analyzed by using an aerial photo of unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV)with 0.2 m resolution on May 12,2020,and meanwhile,the impact of climate change on the change of sphagnum bogs were studied by using data of annual precipitation and mean annual temperature of Anji weather station from 1970 to 2018.Finally,the area of sphagnum bogs and other land types in the next 5 periods were simulated based on the CA-Markov model.The results showed that the areas of the sphagnum bogs as Hynobius amjiensis habitats were 0.92 ha,0.76 ha,0.72 ha and 0.63 ha in 1979,2003,2011 and 2017,indicating that the decrease of 32%during 39 years;climate warming was the main reason for the shrinkage and degradation of sphagnum bogs,and their living space was gradually encroached by the surrounding vascular plants;on condition that the trend of climate change remained unchanged and there was no interference from human activities in the study area,the sphagnum bogs in the reserve would completely extinct,and the habitats of Hynobius amjiensis would no longer exist in 2087.