甘肃省农业全要素生产率测算及空间差异性分析

Trend Change and Space Characteristics Analysis of Agricultural Total Factor Productivity in Gansu Province

本文采用非参数DEA-Malmquist指数法和Moran’s I对甘肃省2010—2019年14个市州的农业全要素生产率进行了测算,并对其空间相关性做了分析。结果表明,在研究期内,甘肃省农业全要素生产率年均增长6.5%,技术进步年均增长5.8%,技术进步依旧是推动农业全要素生产率增长的主导力量,其阶段波动性和区域差异性明显。在空间上,总体展现出了西北高、东南低的特征,存在着空间正相关性,集聚作用显著。热点区域主要集中在张掖、金昌,冷点区域主要集中在甘南、临夏、陇南。基于此,本文提出促进技术进步在区域间转移、发挥产业优势、转变农业发展方式、落实区域协调发展、加强环境保护等建议。

This paper uses nonparametric DEA-Malmquist index method and Moran’s I to measure the agricultural total factor productivity of 14 cities from 2010—2019,and analyzes its spatial correlation.The results showed that during the research period,the agricultural total factor productivity in Gansu Province increased by6.5%annually,and the average technological progress growth rate of 5.8%.Technological progress was still the leading force to promote the growth of agricultural total factor productivity,and its stage volatility and regional differences were obvious.Spatially,the characteristics shows high northwest and low southeast,with spatial positive correlation and significant agglomeration effect.The hot areas are mainly concentrated in Zhangye and Jinchang,and the cold point area is mainly concentrated in Gannan,Linxia and Longnan.Based on this,this paper puts forward suggestions on promoting the transfer of technological progress among regions,giving full play to industrial advantages,transforming the agricultural development mode,carrying out regional coordinated development,and strengthening environmental protection.