地方中小银行风险传染路径与溢出效应分析——以吉林省为例

Analysis of Risk Contagion Path and Spillover Effect of Local Small and Medium-sized Banks ——Take Jilin Province as an Example

本文以吉林省中小金融机构为例,通过构建空间杜宾模型(SDM),探究吉林省地方性中小银行脆弱性的风险传导路径与溢出效应。从中小企业债权债务、资本市场与房地产市场三种渠道,厘清各地中小银行的综合违约风险的传染溢出以及对吉林省整体银行系统稳定性的影响。中小银行是我国金融体系的重要组成部分,在普惠性金融服务、支持实体经济发展、推动经济增长等方面扮演着重要角色。近年来,金融新业态迅猛发展,中小银行之间业务往来日益紧密,地区间风险传染动态累积,空间溢出效应不可忽视。狭义传染指一家银行支付困难能够通过同业拆借网络快速交叉传播至其他往来银行;广义传染不仅包括风险在银行等金融机构间传染,还包括银行客户间恐慌情绪等其他非银行基本财务状况渠道传染。某一地区中小银行出现后会向外传染,造成整个区域连带,对区域经济发展、金融市场稳定、社会基本运行造成负面影响。

Taking small and medium-sized financial institutions in Jilin Province as an example,this paper explores the risk transmission path and spillover effect of the vulnerability of local small and medium-sized banks in Jilin Province by constructing SDM.From the three channels of small and medium-sized enterprise debt,capital market and real estate market,this paper clarifies the contagion spillover of comprehensive default risk of small and medium-sized banks in various regions and its impacts on the stability of the overall banking system in Jilin Province.