我国对RCEP成员国的OFDI效率测度与影响因素分析

Analysis of China’s OFDI Efficiency Measurement and Influencing Factors Analysis for RCEP Member Countries

本文运用标准效率DEA模型与超效率DEA相结合的方法,测算了我国对RCEP成员国直接投资的效率,使用Malmquist指数法深入分析我国对RCEP伙伴国直接投资效率的动态变化趋势,并通过Tobit回归模型探究了我国对外直接投资效率的主要影响因素。得出主要结论:我国对RCEP伙伴国的直接投资效率处于较低水平,对外直接投资效率的国别差异较大,但国别差异出现逐渐缩小的趋势;我国在2005—2020年对RCEP成员国直接投资的全要素生产率呈下降趋势,OFDI效率下降的主要来源是综合技术效率的下降。同时,技术进步率的提高促进了我国对RCEP伙伴国直接投资效率的上升,纯技术效率和规模效率的下降表明考察期内我国对RCEP伙伴国直接投资时的管理水平和规模收益有所下降。从时间序列趋势的角度来看,2005—2020年我国对RCEP伙伴国直接投资效率呈现曲折波动的趋势,经济发展水平对贸易效率有显著的正向作用,产业结构对贸易效率具有显著的负向作用,RCEP各伙伴国的人口密度及外商投资与我国对RCEP成员国直接投资的效率没有显著影响。

By using the method of combining the standard efficiency DEA model and the super-efficiency DEA,this paper measures the efficiency of China’s direct investment in RCEP member countries,and uses the Malmquist index method to analyze the dynamic trend of China’s direct investment efficiency in RCEP partner countries.And with the help of Tobit regression model,this paper explores the main influencing factors of OFDI efficiency.The main conclusions are as follows:The efficiency of China’s direct investment in RCEP partner countries is at a low level,and the country differences in the efficiency of foreign direct investment are large,but the country differences are gradually narrowing.During the period from 2005 to 2020,the total factor productivity of China’s direct investment in RCEP member countries showed a downward trend,and the main source of the decline in OFDI efficiency was the decline in comprehensive technical efficiency.At the same time,the increase in the rate of technological progress has promoted the increase in the efficiency of China’s direct investment in RCEP partner countries.The decline in pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency indicates that the management level and scale returns of China’s direct investment in RCEP partner countries have declined during the inspection period.From the perspective of time series trends,from 2005 to 2020,the efficiency of China’s direct investment in RCEP partner countries showed a tortuous and fluctuating trend.The level of economic development has a significant positive effect on trade efficiency,and the industrial structure has a significant negative effect on trade efficiency.The population density of RCEP partner countries and the efficiency of foreign investment have no significant impact to the efficiency of China’s direct investment in RCEP member countries.