后疫情时代的全球价值链:动力、趋势和中国对策

Global Value Chain in the Post-COVID-19 Era:Impetuses, Trends and China’s Countermeasures

构建一个全球价值链发展动力的理论分析框架,由贸易自由化和科技进步带来的通讯成本、运输费用和关税成本的降低是推动全球价值链快速发展的主要动力。新冠肺炎疫情的暴发对全球价值链的发展造成重大冲击,并在未来数年通过世界政治经济格局对全球价值链发展动力产生持续影响,将改变全球价值链发展趋势。而自动化技术和工业机器人发展带来的规模经济效应,以及全球价值链发展中带来的沉没成本产生的全球价值链黏性,决定了短期内发达国家制造业不会出现大规模回流,成为维持全球价值链发展的重要力量。面对百年未有之大变局,世界政治经济格局持续深刻变革,中国应进一步提高外资利用质量,坚持引进高质量外资,并推动利用外资实现高质量发展;继续推动实施创新驱动发展战略,积极参与全球治理,构建双循环发展格局。

Through constructing a theoretical analysis framework of the driving force of global value chain development, this paper concludes that the reduction of communication cost, transportation cost and tariff cost brought by trade liberalization and scientific and technological progress is the main driving force to promote the rapid development of global value chain. The outbreak of the novel coronavirus pneumonia has a major impact on the development of global value chain, and will continue to exert a lasting impact on the development momentum of global value chain through the world political and economic pattern in the next few years, which will change the development trend of the global value chain. The effects of economies of scale brought by the development of automation technology and industrial robots, as well as the global value chain stickiness caused by sunk costs in the development of global value chain, determine that there will be no large-scale backflow of manufacturing industries in developed countries in the short term, which become an important force to maintain the development trend of global value chain. In the face of great changes unseen in a century, the world’s political and economic pattern continues to undergo profound changes. China should further improve the quality of foreign capital utilization, adhere to the introduction of high-quality foreign capitals, and promote the utilization of foreign capitals to achieve high-quality development. It should also continue to promote the implementation of the innovation-driven development strategy, actively participate in global governance, and build a dual cycle development pattern.