中南地区航空器空中颠簸指数适用分析

Application Analysis of Aircraft Turbulence Index in South-Central China

利用ERA-Interim再分析资料和2015—2019年中南地区航空器空中报告,对比分析7个指数在中南地区空中颠簸的适用效果,结果表明:(1)不同指数有无颠簸之间的值域重合率,Brown指数最低,其次是Ellrod1和Ellrod2,能够从指数值判断颠簸的强弱及存在与否,空报率较低;MOS-CAT和L-P指数值域重合率过高,容易造成较高的空报。(2)Ellrod1、Ellrod2和Brown计算的颠簸区与空中报告的位置对应最好,Dutton和HTG表现不稳定,MOS-CAT和L-P指数计算范围偏大,适用性较差。不同指数计算侧重点不同,当热力因素占主导时,HTG指数计算效果较好。

Using ERA-interim reanalysis data and aircraft air reports in south-central China,the application effects of seven indexes in air turbulence are compared and analyzed.The results show that the Brown index has the lowest coincidence rate between different indexes with or without turbulence,followed by the ellrod1 and ellrod2.The strength and existence of turbulence can be judged from the index values,and the false alarm rate is low;The coincidence rate of MOS-CAT and L-P index range is too high,which is easy to cause high false alarm.The turbulence areas calculated by the ellrod1,ellrod2 and Brown correspond best to the positions reported in the air.Dutton and HTG are unstable;the calculation ranges of MOS-CAT and L-P index are too large,and the applicability is poor.The calculation emphases of different indexes are different.When thermal factors are dominant,the calculation effect of HTG index is better.