中国31省直辖市自治区土地资源尾效研究

Drag of land resources in 31 provinces of China

基于我国人多地少的国情难以改变,土地供需矛盾突出的现实仍长期存在的问题,消除土地资源供应量决定经济发展速度的杂音,揭示土地供应与经济增长速度的关系具有现实意义。文中对两者之间是否存在同升同降关系进行分析研究,量化土地资源的有限性与经济发展的关系。研究结果表明:1)近年来,我国经济增长对土地资源的依赖程度下降,我国经济发展向高质量方向转型,土地资源尾效降低趋势明显。2)土地资源弹性系数(0.15)、劳动力增长率(0.01)远低于资本弹性系数(0.41)。3)全国“十三五”较“十一五”期间尾效值降低1.469%,经济发展对土地的依赖逐步减弱。4)区域间差异较大,东中西及东北部土地资源尾效最大差异达0.56%。针对我国目前土地资源尾效现状,建议盘活存量土地资源,加强节约集约利用管理、加快产业结构优化升级,缓解资源供需矛盾。

Based on the fact that China has large population and less land which is difficult to change,and the reality that the prominent contradiction between land supply and demand is still a long-standing problem,it is of practical significance to interpret the noise that the supply of land resources determines the speed of economic development and reveal the relationship between land supply and the speed of economic growth.In this paper,we analyze and study whether there is the same rise and fall relationship between the two,and quantify the relationship between the limitation of land resources and economic development.Results show:1)In recent years,the dependence of China’s economic growth on land resources has declined,the current economic development is transforming to high-quality,and the drag effect of land resources is obviously decreasing.2)The elasticity coefficient of land resources(0.15)and the labor force growth rate(0.01)are far lower than the capital elasticity coefficient(0.41).3)During the period of"13 th Five-Year Plan"the drag has reduced by 1.469%compared with the period"11 th Five-Year Plan",and the dependence of economic development on land has gradually weakened.4)There are great differences among regions,and the differences in the drag of land resources among east,middle,west and northeast regions is the largest,with a difference of 0.56%.In view of the current situation of China’s land resources,it is recommended to revitalize the stock of land resources,strengthen the management of economical and intensive utilization,accelerate the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure,and alleviate the contradiction between resource supply and demand.