经济增长与主权债务违约——基于投资者情绪的视角

Economic Growth and Sovereign Debt Default:From the Perspective of Investor Sentiment

投资者情绪对经济活动的影响至关重要。基于2000-2020年64个国家的季度和年度非平衡面板数据,通过研究投资者情绪对经济增长和主权债务违约的影响,发现投资者情绪较为乐观的国家,更有可能出现经济增长放缓和主权债务违约,特别是那些拥有巨额经常账户赤字的国家,且投资者情绪存在潜在的非对称性,过度乐观会显著提高主权国家的违约金额占比和违约概率。机制分析表明,过度乐观的投资者情绪会通过积累大量债务和减少投资来影响一国的经济状况。因此,在当前的外部环境下,主权国家在投融资时应更加重视基本面信息,审慎使用外部资本,持续加强监管,防范由于过度乐观而积累风险。

The impact of investor sentiment on economic activities is crucial. Based on the quarterly and annual unbalanced panel data of 64 countries from 2000 to 2020, this paper studies the impact of investor sentiment on economic growth and sovereign debt defaults. The findings show that countries with more optimistic investor sentiment are more likely to experience slower e conomic growth and sovereign debt defaults, especially those countries with huge current account deficits;and the investor sentiment is potentially asymmetrical, excessive optimism will significantly increase the default amount proportion and the default probability of sovereign countries. The results of the mechanistic analysis show that overly optimistic investor sentiment can affect a country’s economic situation by accumulating large amounts of debt and reducing investment. Therefore, under the current external environment, sovereign countries should pay more attention to the fundamental information when making investments and financing, use external capital prudently, continue to strengthen supervision, and prevent the accumulated risks due to excessive optimism.