俄乌冲突下的经济制裁:措施、影响与不确定性

Economic Sanctions Under Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Measures, Impact and Uncertainties

经济制裁是一种具有胁迫性的政策工具,目的通常是为了改变制裁对象的行为。经济制裁作为单一政治手段使用几乎很难实现政策目标,许多看似无关的外部因素往往成为制约压力传导、令制裁对象得以应对压力而不改变行为的关键。自今年2月以来,俄罗斯面临史上最大规模的经济制裁却仍未改变对乌克兰的政策及军事行动。基于这一背景,本文从经济制裁的基本观点出发,简要梳理本轮对俄罗斯经济制裁的主要措施,分析经济制裁对制裁对象、制裁方及第三方国家的影响,最后基于上述影响分析,归纳此轮经济制裁压力传导的路径、潜在的外部因素及其不确定性。

Economic sanction is a coercive policy tool, which is usually imposed to change the behavior of targets. Used as a separate policy instrument, economic sanction can hardly achieve policy goals. Many seemingly irrelevant external factors often play a key role in the working mechanism of economic sanction: to facilitate or restrict putting pressure on the targets and to strengthen or weaken the targets’ capacities to alleviate the pressure.Since February of 2022, Russia has faced the largest economic sanctions in history but has not changed its policy and military operation toward Ukraine. Given the context, the paper firstly reviews opinions about economic sanction and then briefly summarizes the major measures of the economic sanctions against Russia. Furthermore, the paper focuses on analyzing the impact of economic sanctions on Russia, the costs to the US and the EU as well as implications for China and other developing countries. Based on the analysis, the research summarizes several potential working mechanisms of the economic sanctions, potential external factors and uncertainties.