基于陆气耦合的城市雨洪模拟技术研究进展

Urban flood simulation based on land-atmosphere coupling models

对汇流时间短、暴雨时程集中且短期内降水强度大的城市区域而言,暴雨洪涝灾害预见期的延长可以为制定应急预案和实施防汛抢险争取更多的响应时间,降低城市暴雨洪涝事件带来的潜在危害.延长城市暴雨洪涝灾害预见期的有效措施之一,是采用基于数值天气预报技术和多源/高分辨率数据资料的陆气耦合城市雨洪模拟技术进行雨洪过程模拟和灾害预报.本文归纳总结了城市雨洪过程模拟和预报中常用的5类降水输入数据及各类降水数据的适用条件;总结了数值天气预报技术在区域强降水模拟方面的研究进展及存在的问题;梳理了城市雨洪过程模拟中采用的常见方法及优缺点;总结了数值降水预报技术应用于城市雨洪过程模拟和预报的最新研究进展.在此基础上,提出了基于陆气耦合的城市雨洪模拟技术需要解决的关键问题和应对之策,指出在当前城市雨洪模拟技术较为成熟的情况下,减小数值降水预报结果的不确定性和提高城市雨洪过程模拟的精细化程度是提高城市暴雨洪涝灾害预报准确性的主要手段.

Extension of lead time for urban flood forecasting could have much response time to formulate an emergency plan and implement flood control to reduce potential hazards from urban flooding. It is especially true for urban areas with short flow routing time,intensive rainstorm duration,and high precipitation intensity. One of the most effective measures to prolong lead time of urban flood forecasting is to use land-atmosphere coupling model of urban flood simulation technology based on numerical weather prediction technology and multi-source/high-resolution data. Five types of precipitation input data and their application conditions in urban flood simulation and prediction are summarized. State-of-art numerical weather prediction technology in regional heavy precipitation simulation is reviewed. Methods commonly used to simulate urban runoff generation and urban flow routing processes are summarized and compared. Progress in numerical precipitation prediction technology in urban flood simulation and prediction is reviewed. Key issues and solutions for urban flood simulation technology based on land-atmosphere coupling model are proposed. With improvements in urban flood simulation technology,decrease in uncertainty in numerical precipitation prediction results and improvement of urban flood simulation are major ways to improve accuracy of urban flood prediction.