全球化力量重塑区域主义:全球价值链分工与区域贸易协定网络形成

The Forces of Globalization Reshape Regionalism: The Division of Labor in Global Value Chains and the Formation of a Network of Regional Trade Agreements

近三十年间,区域贸易协定和全球价值链经历了较快的发展,二者呈现出共生发展的态势。区域贸易协定构成区域主义的现实基础,而全球价值链作为经济全球化核心架构属于多边主义取得进展的成果。作为全球化力量的集中体现,全球价值链正在重塑区域主义,并在区域主义与多边主义之间进行协调。从发展趋势上看,区域贸易协定发展呈现出网络化趋势并且具有显著的结构依赖性,然而,现有关于区域经济一体化的研究文献尚没有充分地考虑上述特征。为了从网络视角考察全球价值链发展对区域贸易协定网络形成的影响机制,文章构建了区域贸易协定网络,并建立了包含经济因素和结构性因素的指数随机图模型,注重研究网络结构依赖和复杂网络形成之间的关系。研究结果表明,网络传递闭合性系数显著为正,说明网络现有关联主导着区域贸易协定网络的形成。经济体在全球价值链的位置会影响其加入区域贸易协定网络的选择,全球价值链下游度越高的经济体越倾向于参与区域贸易协定。双边增加值关联的增加会促进经济体间建立区域贸易协定关系,而双边生产长度的增加会降低经济体间建立贸易协定的概率。

In the past three decades,regional trade agreements and global value chains have experienced rapid development,and they have shown a trend of symbiotic development. Regional trade agreements constitute the realistic basis of regionalism,and global value chains,as the core framework of globalization,highlight the fruits of the progress of multilateralism. As the main embodiment of globalization,global value chains reshape regionalism and then coordinate the relationship between regionalism and multilateralism. From the perspective of trends,the development of regional trade agreements presents a network-like distribution and has significant structural dependence. However,the existing literature on regional economic integration has not fully considered this. To examine the influence mechanism of the development of global value chains on the formation of regional trade agreement networks from the perspective of network analysis,this paper constructs a regional trade agreement network and establishes exponential random graph models that include structural factors,focusing on network structure dependence. The results show that the transitive closure coefficient is significantly positive,indicating that the existing network associations dominate the formation of the RTA network. The position of the economies in the global value chain will affect their choice to participate in the RTA network.The economies with downstream embedding positions are more likely to participate in the network of RTA. The increase in bilateral value-added trade linkages promotes the establishment of a regional trade agreement between the two economies,while the increase in bilateral production length will reduce the probability of establishing a trade agreement between the two economies.