原油市场与全球绿色经济发展的交互影响研究

The interactions between crude oil market and development of global green economy

绿色经济作为绿色发展的核心内容,既是实现经济社会与生态文明建设协同发展的关键路径,也是能源结构绿色转型升级的首要目标.考虑到工业生产在经济发展中的主力作用,作为工业生产的“血液”和能源市场的重要组成部分,原油市场与绿色经济发展必然密切相关.为了深入挖掘原油市场与绿色经济间的相关关系,本文采用非参数分位数格兰杰因果关系检验(causality-inquantiles)和分位数对分位数(quantile-on-quantile)回归方法,探究原油市场与全球绿色经济的交互影响机制.结果表明:第一,原油市场与全球绿色经济发展总体上具有正向交互影响作用,但存在不同区域的异质性结构突变,其中亚洲区域的情况尤为复杂;第二,原油市场与全球绿色经济的交互影响是时变和非对称的,极端市场(尤其是熊市)时期的交互影响程度显著大于正常市场时期;第三,原油市场与全球绿色经济之间形成了“原油价格-需求-绿色经济”双向动态循环传导的交互影响机制,且反向传导比正向传导的作用程度更深,且更加稳定.

As the core content of green development,green economy is not only the key path to realize the coordinated development of economic society and ecological civilization construction,but also the primary goal of green transformation and upgrading of energy structure.Considering the main role of industrial production in economic construction,crude oil,as the"Blood"of industrial production and an important part of energy market,has potential connection with the development of green economy.In order to deeply explore the complex relationship between the crude oil market and the green economy,the non-parametric causality-in-quantiles test and quantile-on-quantile method are used in this paper,to explore the interaction mechanism between crude oil market and global green economy.The results show that:Firstly,there is a positive interaction between the crude oil market and the global green economy,but it contains the structural changes of heterogeneity in different regions,especially in Asia.Secondly,the interaction between crude oil market and global green economy is time-varying and asymmetric:the degree of interaction in extreme markets(especially bear markets)is significantly greater than that in normal markets.Thirdly,the oil market and the global green economy form an interactive mechanism of two-way dynamic circular conduction of"oil price-demand-green economy",in which the backward conduction is more stable and effective than the forward conduction.