需求不确定下防汛物资储备成本效率优化

Cost-effectiveness optimization of flood prevention material reserve under demand uncertainty

防汛物资储备是应对洪涝灾害应急工作的物质保障和工作基础.为了有效应对洪涝灾害发生的不确定性,需要设计一套高效节约的防汛物资储备方案,以实现物资储备选址和分配策略的最优化.文章通过设定受灾地区物资匮乏可能造成的直接经济损失与该地区对防汛物资等待时间之间的函数关系,建立了一个以成本效率最大化为目标的防汛物资储备选址-分配鲁棒随机优化模型.以江苏省的洪涝灾害历史数据为基础,运用所构建的成本效率优化模型,对江苏省防汛物资储备方案进行研究.研究结果显示,该模型可以给出相较于现实储备情况更为节约高效的选址和分配储备方案,实现成本和效果的平衡,大大减少方案制定时所面临的两难情况.

Flood prevention material reserve is the material guarantee and work basis for the response to flood disasters.In order to effectively cope with the uncertainty of flood disasters,it is necessary to design an efficient and economical flood prevention material reserve plan to realize the optimization of location and allocation strategy.In this paper,a function relationship between the direct economic loss that may be caused by the shortage of materials in the disaster-affected area and the waiting time for flood control materials was set.A robust stochastic model for the location-allocation of flood prevention material with the objective of cost-effectiveness was also established.Based on the historical data of flood in Jiangsu Province,the cost-effectiveness optimization model is used to study the flood prevention material reserve plan in Jiangsu Province.The research results show that the model can give a more cost-effective location selection and reserve plan compared with the existing reserve,achieve a balance of cost and effectiveness,and greatly avoid the dilemma faced by the formulation of material reserve plan.