土地利用变化对蓄满-超渗兼容模型参数的影响分析

Analysis on the Influence of Land Use Changes to the Parameters of Excess Storage-Excess Infiltration Simultaneous Model

基于考虑土地利用与覆盖变化(LUCC)的蓄满-超渗兼容模型,结合汾河静乐水文站控制流域的土地利用变化情况,对该流域在1966—2013年3个研究时段内相关模型参数产生的变化进行分析,以揭示土地利用变化对水文过程的影响。模型检验结果表明,1966—1978年和1979—1998年这2个时段内流域的洪水预报模拟精度均达到乙级预报水平,而1999—2013年其精度未达到丙级预报水平。土地利用变化量与模型参数变化量的对比结果显示,土地利用变化对模型参数产生了较大影响,随着流域林地和草地面积增加、耕地面积减少,流域的地下水出流能力、下渗能力、蓄水能力以及蒸发能力都有所提高。

Based on the excess storage-excess infiltration simultaneous model,considering land use and cover changes(LUCC)and combined with the situation of land use changes in the control basin of Jinghe Hydrological Station on the Fenhe River,the changes of related model parameters in the basin during the three study periods during 1966-2013 were analyzed to reveal the impact of land use changes on hydrological processes.The model test results show that the simulation accuracy of flood forecasting in the basin during 1966-1978 and 1979-1998 both reaches to the level of Grade B,but it does not reach to the level of Grade C during 1999-2013.The comparison results of land use changes and model parameter changes show that land use changes have greater influence to the model parameters.With the increase in the area of woodland and grassland in the basin,the area of cultivated land is decreased and the groundwater outflow capacity,infiltration capacity,water storage capacity and evaporation capacity of the basin all have been improved.