黄河口流路运用方案综合评价模型系统研究

Research and Development of Comprehensive Evaluation Model for Yellow River Estuary Flow Path Operation Scheme

从黄河下游减淤、河口地区防洪、生态环境、区域经济社会发展、海岸减蚀、投资费用等方面选择综合评价指标,利用德尔菲法开展专家评估,确定各指标权重;针对各评价指标,利用层次分析法、熵权法、关联度法、主成分分析法等方法,建立了综合评价模型系统,满足不同流路治理方案效益定量化评价需要;应用研发的模型,在未来龙门、华县、河津、[氵状]头四站来沙1.5亿、3亿、6亿t/a条件下,对不同运用方案开展流路方案综合评价,提出黄河口优化流路运行方案。

The comprehensive benefit evaluation indexes were selected from the aspects of sediment reduction in the lower Yellow River,flood control in the estuary area,ecological environment,regional economic and social development,coastal erosion reduction and investment cost.The Delphi method was used to introduce the expert evaluation system,and the quantitative expression method of each index was established.According to each evaluation index,a comprehensive evaluation model was established by using analytic hierarchy process,entropy method,correlation degree method and principal component analysis method to meet the needs of quantitative evaluation of equivalent benefits of different flow path schemes and control measures;Applying the developed model,according to the characteristic values of seven evaluation indexes of different application schemes under 150 million,300 million and 600 million tons sediment inflow conditions of Longmen,Huaxian,Hejin and Zhuangtou in the future,the comprehensive benefit evaluation of flow path schemes was carried out,and the optimized scheme for the operation of Yellow River estuary flow path was proposed.