2015—2020年徐州市脑血管疾病死亡对居民期望寿命的影响

Impact of cerebrovascular disease death on residents’ life expectancy in Xuzhou City from 2015 to 2020

目的 分析2015—2020年脑血管疾病死亡对徐州市居民期望寿命的影响,评价人口老龄化对脑血管疾病死亡率的影响。方法 利用徐州市死因监测系统收集的2015—2020年户籍人口脑血管疾病死亡资料及徐州市统计局人口数据,采用简略寿命表法、Joinpoint回归分析、Arriaga’s法、死亡率差别分解法,分析脑血管疾病对徐州市居民期望寿命的影响及人口老龄化对脑血管疾病死亡率的影响。结果 2015—2020年徐州市居民脑血管疾病年均死亡率为142.6/10万,死亡率从2015年的130.6/10万上升至2020年的154.8/10万[年度变化百分比(APC)=3.08%,P=0.005];男(APC=2.88%,P=0.012)、女(APC=3.32%,P=0.004)、城市(APC=3.58%,P=0.012)、农村(APC=2.94%,P=0.009)脑血管疾病死亡率均呈上升趋势。2015—2020年徐州市居民期望寿命增加0.83岁,脑血管疾病死亡使徐州市居民期望寿命减少0.26岁。徐州市居民死亡率的上升有54.4%归因于人口老龄化因素,人口老龄化在男性、女性、城市、农村居民脑血管疾病死亡率增加的贡献程度分别为58.2%、49.2%、48.2%、56.4%。结论 2015—2020年徐州市居民脑血管疾病死亡率呈上升趋势,对期望寿命增长起到负向作用,影响程度存在性别和城乡差异。人口老龄化是徐州市居民脑血管疾病死亡率增加的重要影响因素。

ObjectiveTo evaluate the impact of cerebrovascular disease death on the life expectancy of residents in Xuzhou City from 2015 to 2020 and estimate the impact of population aging on mortality of cerebrovascular diseases.Methods By using the death data of cerebrovascular diseases of registered residence population from the Death Cause Monitoring System in Xuzhou City from 2015 to 2020, and the population data from Xuzhou Statistical Bureau, the impact of cerebrovascular diseases on life expectancy of Xuzhou residents and the impact of population aging on the mortality of cerebrovascular diseases were analyze with the simple life table method, Joinpoint regression analysis, Arriaga’s method, and mortality differential decomposition method.ResultsFrom 2015 to 2020, the average annual mortality rate of cerebrovascular diseases in Xuzhou residents was 142.6/105, and the mortality rate increased from 130.6/105 in 2015 to 154.8/105 in 2020 [annual percentage change(APC) = 3.08%, P = 0.005]. The mortality of cerebrovascular diseases in men(APC = 2.88%, P = 0.012), women(APC =3.32%, P = 0.004), cities(APC = 3.58%, P = 0.012) and rural areas(APC = 2.94%, P = 0.009) showed an upward trend. From2015 to 2020, the life expectancy of Xuzhou residents increased by 0.83 years, and the death of cerebrovascular diseases reduced the life expectancy of Xuzhou residents by 0.26 years. Totally 54.4% of the increase in the death rate of residents in Xuzhou City was attributed to the factor of population aging. The contribution of population aging to the increase of cerebrovascular disease death rate of male, female, urban and rural residents were 58.2%, 49.2%, 48.2% and 56.4%, respectively.ConclusionsFrom 2015 to 2020, the mortality rate of cerebrovascular diseases in Xuzhou residents showed an upward trend,which played a negative role in the growth of life expectancy. There were gender and urban-rural differences in the degree of impact. Population aging is an important factor affecting the increase of cerebrovascular disease mortality in Xuzhou City.