数字乡村与乡村振兴耦合协调发展的时序适配性分析

Exploration on Timing Adaptation of Coordinated Development of Digital Villages and Rural Revitalization

数字乡村与乡村振兴相辅相成、相互促进,其耦合协调状态有助于释放数字红利,催生“三农”发展内生动力,提速农业农村现代化。在对数字乡村和乡村振兴的耦合关系理论分析基础上,构建两系统的耦合协调评价指标体系,利用灰色预测、计量回归等模型分析2015~2019年两系统协调发展时序特征及影响因素。结果表明,数字乡村和乡村振兴发展水平稳中有增,耦合协调度呈现由失调衰退转为初级协调发展的动态特征,并存在向更高层次转移的可能性。农村居民可支配收入、全国农村公路总里程、农业机械总动力和农业数字经济占行业增加值比重对两系统相互耦合具有正向促进作用,而数据开放共享水平低、信息网络基础设施建设滞后、农村居民数字素养偏低、新一代信息技术应用尚待深入普及则不利于两系统协调发展。基于此,未来应充分重视优化乡村基础设施和发展环境,培育壮大乡村人才队伍,拓展数字乡村应用场景,打破数据孤岛和系统壁垒。

Digital villages and rural revitalization complement each other and promote each other.The state of their coupling coordination helps to release the digital dividend,generate endogenous power for the development of agriculture,rural areas and farmers,and speed up the modernization of agriculture and rural areas.On the basis of theoretical analysis of the coupling relationship between digital villages and rural revitalization,the evaluation index system of coupling coordination between the two systems was constructed,and the time series characteristics and influencing factors of coordinated development between the two systems in 2015-2019 were analyzed by using grey prediction and econometric regression models.The results showed that the development level of digital villages and rural revitalization had increased steadily,and the coupling coordination degree had the dynamic characteristics of changing from imbalance recession to primary coordinated development,and there was the possibility of transferring to a higher level.Disposable income of rural residents,total mileage of rural roads,total power of agricultural machinery and the proportion of digital economy in the added value of the industry had a positive role in promoting the coupling of the two systems.However,the low level of open data sharing,the lag of information network infrastructure construction,the low digital literacy of rural residents,and the popularization of the new generation of information technology were not conducive to the coordinated development of the two systems.According to the research results,full attention should be paid to optimizing rural infrastructure and development environment,cultivating and strengthening rural talents,expanding digital rural application scenarios,and breaking down data silos and system barriers.