伙伴关系升级与对华贸易相互依赖

Partnership Upgrade and Trade Interdependence with China

为验证伙伴关系升级是否只是两国友好关系的一种象征,或者能否推动两国贸易的相互依赖,作者采用双向固定效应模型对1993—2018年161个国家伙伴关系升级与对华贸易相互依赖之间的关系进行了研究,发现伙伴关系升级以及伙伴关系层级对一国对华贸易相互依赖具有显著的推动作用。同时,伙伴关系升级的对象国是否为美国盟国具有显著的调节效应。与非美国盟国相比,和美国盟国的伙伴关系升级将会对对华贸易相互依赖产生消极影响。此外,作为控制变量的政体差异对一国对华贸易相互依赖的影响并不明显。以中国与韩国、中国与巴西的伙伴关系升级为案例考察其中的作用机制,可发现伙伴关系升级降低了关税及非关税等贸易壁垒,降低了政策变动的风险,明确了合作方向和重点合作领域,为双方进一步的合作提供了政治保障,从而推动了双边贸易的自由化与扩大化。这些发现说明伙伴关系升级能够有效加强双边贸易往来,同时不支持政体类型对贸易具有显著影响这一大多数研究结论。

Regarding the question of whether upgrading partnership is just a symbol of friendly relations between the two countries and whether it can promote the mutual dependence of trade between the two countries,the authors use a two-way fixed effect model to analyze the relationship between partnership upgrade and trade interdependence with China in 161 countries from 1993 to 2018,and find that upgrading partnership and partnership hierarchy have significant promoting effects on the interdependence of a country’s trade with China.At the same time,whether the target country for upgrading partnership is an ally of the United States has a significant moderating effect.Upgrading partnerships with U.S.allies has a negative impact on trade interdependence with China compared to non-U.S.allies.In addition,the effect of regime differences as a control variable on a country’s trade interdependence with China is not significant.The authors examine the mechanism of the upgrading of partnerships between China and South Korea,and China and Brazil,and find that the two sides of the upgraded partnership have signed a large number of treaties to lower trade barriers such as tariffs and non-tariffs,reduce the risk of policy changes,clarify direction and key areas of cooperation,and provide political guarantee for further cooperation between the two sides so as to promote the liberalization and expansion of their bilateral trade.Through rigorous analysis,the authors reveal that upgrading partnership can effectively strengthen bilateral trade,and do not support most previous research conclusion that government regimes have significant impact on trade.