科技规划事前评估指标体系构建与方法探索

Criteria and method research on ex-ante evaluation of science and technology and innovation planning

规划的高质量编制是其高质量实施的重要基础前提。事前评估不仅可作为提高科技规划编制质量的有效工具,也是贯彻落实中央提出的“抓战略、抓规划、抓政策、抓服务”要求的一项重要举措。当前,在我国科技规划的制定环节引入事前评估机制,有利于进一步提高规划的编制质量和后续实施效率与效果,形成覆盖规划“事前—事中—事后”全生命周期的监测评估体系。本文在借鉴国外规划文本质量评估有关研究成果的基础上,结合“十四五”国家科技创新专项规划事前评估试点经验,围绕外部有效性、内部有效性、过程合规性和预期风险等4个维度提出了科技规划事前评估的通用指标体系,并开发了相应的适用评估工具方法。上述指标体系的构建和工具方法的开发,对于开展其他领域发展规划的事前评估,也具有积极的参考意义。

High quality planning is an important prerequisite for high quality plan implementation. Ex-ante evaluation is not only a powerful tool to improve the quality of Science and Technology and Innovation(STI) planning, but also an important measure to implement the central government’s instruction of "grasping strategy, plan, policy and service". Today, in the field of China’s STI planning, it is necessary and urgent to introduce the ex-ante evaluation mechanism to enhance STI planning quality as well as subsequent STI plan implementation efficiency and effect especially at departmental and regional level, and establish an overall monitoring and evaluation system covering the whole life cycle of STI plans. Although a good plan should be distinguished from bad ones, the ex-ante evaluation of STI plans in China nowadays should focus on the document quality instead of the ranking of alternatives, which is different with ex-ante evaluation of plans in other fields like land use, urban or local development. In 2021, the Ministry of Science and Technology(MOST) of China entrusted the National Center for Science and Technology Evaluation(NCSTE) with ex-ante evaluation(or quality evaluation) of the drafted 18 National Special STI 14Five-year Plans. It is the first time that ex-ante evaluation was introduced into the management of STI plans in China. Based on the pilot project of ex-ante evaluation of National Special STI 14Five-year Plans and relevant foreign studies on plan quality evaluation, a general evaluation framework including 14 criteria for ex-ante evaluation of STI planning was put forward from the four aspects of external validity, internal validity, process compliance and potential risk. The external validity aspect consists of 3 criteria: consistency with national strategies and policies, consistency with superior plan and coherence with other plans. The internal validity aspect includes 7 criteria: accuracy of fact and problem definition, scientific objective setting, rationality of tasks, effectiveness of ensurance measures, internal consistency, feasibility of monitoring and evaluation, and format of the content. The process compliance aspect focuses on 2 criteria: normativeness of planning process and participation of the public. The potential risk aspect could be evaluated by 2 criteria: internal implementation risk and external environmental risk. Moreover, evaluation tools and methods like policy comparison, superior plan comparison and Objective Tree analysis are also developed correspondingly. Although the above exploration of STI plan ex-ante evaluation criteria and corresponding evaluation tools and methods needs to go further and deeper in the future, it is still possible that they may provide reference for ex-ante evaluation of development plans in other fields in China.