双循环格局与产业科技创新的耦合协调分析

Analysis of coupling and coordination between double cycle pattern and industrial technological innovation

国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局正深刻影响中国经济发展模式,而科技创新作为驱动发展的重要支撑,亦成为推动国家综合实力提升的关键力量。本文以双循环新发展格局与产业科技创新为研究对象,基于世界投入产出关系构建双循环定量测度模型,并利用Index DEA与耦合协调模型,分析两者间的耦合关系。研究发现:我国在2008-2014年间就基本形成国内循环为主导的循环体系,但产业链低端锁定现象制约国外循环体系的有效拓展;双循环新发展格局与产业科技创新呈现积极耦合关系,但产业内部存在差距较大、尖端创新不足等现实问题;国内循环与产业科技创新保持在科技创新前沿耦合态,国外循环与产业科技创新则停留在循环超前状态,双循环与科技创新的耦合质量有待进一步提升。

The new development pattern in which the domestic cycle is the mainstay and the domestic and international cycles promote each other is profoundly affecting China’s economic development pattern. As an important support to drive development, science and technology innovation has become a key force to promote the comprehensive strength of the country. The long-term coupling of science and technology innovation and the double cycle can not only promote the change of domestic technology and break the traditional value chain of technological silos, but also guide the industry to connect with advanced foreign technological systems and enhance product quality. The double cycle provides the idea of resource factor reallocation for science and technology innovation. And science and technology innovation lays the foundation for the dual cycle’s ability to renew and develop itself. This paper takes the new development pattern of double-cycle and industrial science and technology innovation as the research object, constructs a quantitative measurement model of double-cycle based on the world input-output relationship, and uses Index DEA and coupling coordination model to analyse the coupling relationship between the two. The study found that:(1) China has basically formed a domestic cycle-led cycle system during 2008-2014. Domestic product supply dominates, but the phenomenon of locking at the low end of the industrial chain restricts the effective expansion of the foreign cycle system;(2) the new development pattern of the double cycle and industrial science and technology innovation present a positive coupling relationship, but there are real problems within the industry such as large gaps and insufficient cutting-edge innovation;(3) the domestic cycle and industrial science and technology innovation maintain a coupling state at the frontier of science and technology innovation, presenting the responsibility of science and technology-driven development and execution. However, as far as the internal industry is concerned, the differentiation gap is large, and some of the industrial technologies are weak and obsolete;(4) foreign circulation and industrial science and technology innovation stay in the state of circulation ahead, and the dependence of domestic technology on foreign supply is strong, and the cutting-edge competitive advantage is obviously lacking. Overall, the coupling quality of double cycle and science and technology innovation needs to be further improved.Firstly, the precise integration of the two should be continuously strengthened, and innovation resources should be allocated scientifically so that they fit efficiently with the industrial cycle;secondly, the main position of the inner cycle should continue to be maintained, and the development direction of the inner cycle should be adjusted in a timely manner to empower the high-quality development of the domestic economy;thirdly, the overall guidance of the science and technology innovation and the double cycle system should be realised, without overly pursuing the leadership of science and technology or the cycle, but rather optimising it as a whole;fourthly, the Focus on the quality of science and technology innovation, and meet the realistic demands of the industrial cycle through the enhancement of the effectiveness of science and technology innovation.