气候变暖背景下济南农业气候资源特征

Characteristics of Agricultural Climate Resources in Jinan under the Background of Climate Warming

选取济南7个地面气象观测站提供的1967—2017年的气候要素资料,分析了济南农业气候资源对全球气候变暖的响应程度。结果表明:济南近50年气温持续上升,50年间气温变化幅度较大,升温趋势显著,四季中有3个季节气温呈上升趋势,对全球气候变暖有积极的响应。济南平均≥10℃积温呈显著增加趋势,对喜温作物的播种生长较为有利。济南近50年日照时数年际变化呈下降趋势,各季日照时数总体上也均呈现下降态势。分析该变化的原因为济南近年来城市化进程加快、污染物的增加引起大气气溶胶含量增加的影响,导致地表接收太阳辐射减弱。济南农业气候资源整体表现为热量资源增加,光照资源减少,建议在今后农业生产中趋利避害,种植高产中晚期农作物,以提高农作物产量。

Based on the climate data from 1967 to 2017 from 7 meteorological stations in Jinan,the response of agricultural climate resources in Jinan to global warming was analyzed.The results showed that the temperature in Jinan had been rising continuously in the past 50 years,and the range of temperature change in the past 50years was large and the warming trend was significant.The temperature in three seasons has a rising trend,which has a positive response to global warming.The average accumulated temperature≥10℃in Jinan showed a significant increase trend,which was more favorable to the sowing and growth of temperaturenous crops.The interannual variation of sunshine duration in Jinan in the past 50 years showed a downward trend,and the sunshine duration in each season also showed a downward trend on the whole.The reason for this change is that the acceleration of urbanization and the increase of pollutants in Jinan in recent years lead to the increase of atmospheric aerosol content,which leads to the decrease of solar radiation received by the surface.The overall performance of the agricultural climate resources in Jinan is the increase of heat resources and the decrease of light resources.It is suggested that in the future agricultural production,the advantages and disadvantages should be avoided and crops with high yield should be planted in the middle and late period to improve crop yield.