基于Mann-Kendall检验对近10年滨州市全年降水量的探究

Research on Annual Precipitation of Binzhou City in Recent Ten Years Based on Mann-Kendall Test

基于Mann-Kendall检验法对滨州市2011—2020年全年降水量进行分析,从年际变化来看,平均降水量为641.3 mm,年际变化较大,在2018年达到最大值846.0 mm,在2014年达到最小值439.6 mm,比值达到1.92,该市年降水量趋于显著上升趋势。根据Mann-Kendall检验结果,年降水量Z=0.5367为正值,证明其呈现上升趋势,但Z数值小,降水无显著性增长,年降水量波动大。2011—2020年,8月Z≥1.64,证明8月在为置信度95%呈上升趋势。此结论为市区合理开发利用水资源提供保障。

Based on the Mann-Kendall test method,this paper analyzes the annual precipitation of Binzhou from 2011 to 2020.From the perspective of interannual variation,the average precipitation was 641.3mm,with large interannual variation.It reached the maximum value of 846.0 mm in 2018,the minimum value of 439.6 mm in 2014,and the specific value reaches 1.92.The annual precipitation of Binzhou tends to increase significantly.According to the results of Mann-Kendall test,the annual precipitation Z=0.5367 is positive,It was proved that it has an upward trend,but the Z value was small,the precipitation has no significant growth,and the annual precipitation fluctuates greatly.In the 12 months of each year from 2011 to 2020,Z≥1.64 in August proves that the confidence in August was 95%,which is an upward trend.This conclusion provides a guarantee for the rational development and utilization of water resources in the urban area.