陇东地膜玉米干旱灾害风险评估及保险指数设计

Drought Disaster Risk Assessment and Insurance Index Design of Plastic Film Maize in East Gansu

选取陇东地区8个县(区)气候观测站1991—2020年降水资料和相应县(区)玉米产量资料。采用回归法分析,将玉米产量分离成气候产量和趋势产量。以降水距平百分率作为干旱指标,构建干旱天气指数,对陇东地区8个县(区)干旱灾害风险进行评估,得出干旱灾害风险由高到低依次为:庆城县>环县>华池县>西峰区>正宁县>镇原县>合水县>宁县。设定干旱天气指数大于50%时为保险赔付阈值,则分县(区)初始保险费率在1.4%~8.2%,每666.7 m2缴纳保费为8.4~49.2元。实现了不同县(区)间差异费率,提升了农业保险产品的合理性,为地膜玉米保险的推广及赔付提供科技支撑。

The precipitation data from 1991 to 2020 and the corn yield data of the corresponding counties(districts)in 8 counties(districts)in Eastern Gansu were selected.The maize yield was separated into climate yield and trend yield by regression analysis.Taking the percentage of precipitation anomaly as the drought index,the drought weather index was constructed to evaluate the drought disaster risk of 8 counties(districts)in East Gansu.It is concluded that the order of drought disaster risk is Qingcheng County>Huan County>Huachi County>Xifeng District>Zhengning County>Zhenyuan County>Heshui County>Ning County from high to low.When the drought weather index is greater than 50%,it is the insurance compensation threshold,then the initial insurance premium rate of each county(district)is between 1.4%and 8.2%,and the insurance premium paid per 666.7m2 is RMB 8.4 to 49.2.The differential rates among different counties(districts)have been realized,and the rationality of agricultural insurance products has been improved.