2021年6月15—16日一次大到暴雨天气过程分析

Analysis of a Heavy Rainstorm Weather Process from June 15 to 16,2021

利用相关气象资料,分析了2021年6月15—16日青海省一次大到暴雨天气过程。结果表明:此次过程主要受南亚高压及副高外围西南气流影响,副高增强,青海上游地区有西风带短波槽过境,西风带系统和高原系统均在青海东南部地区汇聚,果洛南部有地面辐合线。红外云图对流云团在果洛、海南、黄南、玉树北部地区发展持续时间较长。在短时强降水发生前1 h,自动站气象要素所有气象要素均有明显变化。中尺度模式预报GRAPES-3KM模式对此次过程预报与实况更为接近,对大降水量级的把握更好,但两家模式对于大降水的落区预报稍有偏北。

Based on relevant meteorological data,a heavy rainstorm process in Qinghai province from June 15 to 16,2021 was analyzed.The results showed that:This process was mainly affected by the southwest air flow around the South Asia high and the subtropical high.The subtropical high was strengthened.There was a short wave trough of the westerly belt in the upper reaches of Qinghai,the westerly belt system and the plateau system converge in the southeast of Qinghai,and there was a ground convergence line in the south of Golog.Infrared cloud image convective cloud clusters had developed for a long time in Golog,Hainan,Huangnan and Northern Yushu.One hour before the occurrence of short-term heavy precipitation,all meteorological elements of the automatic station had obvious changes.The GRAPES-3KM model was more close to the actual forecast of the process,and the prediction of large precipitation level was better,but the prediction of heavy precipitation area was slightly north of the two models.