保定地区道路结冰气象条件分析及预报预警研究

Study on Meteorological Condition Analysis and Prediction and Early Warning of Road Icing in Baoding Area

利用保定地区2000—2020年冬季16个高速公路沿线附近气象站的地面温度、气温、相对湿度、风速、降水、积雪等地面气象观测资料,分析保定地区道路结冰的时空变化特征,构建保定道路结冰预报模型。结果表明:保定地区道路结冰日数呈“西北多,东南少”分布,主要发生在1月;相关性分析表明,地面温度均与气温、相对湿度、降水量、10 min平均风速有显著相关关系;利用逐步回归方法建立冬季地面温度预报模型,通过对比分析与计算,该模型的地面温度拟合值与实况值变化趋势大体一致,平均绝对值误差与均方根误差较小,可以作为地面温度预报模型应用;从河北省智能网格预报产品中提取气温、降水、风速、湿度等基本要素,对道路结冰预报模型进行检验,整体看预报效果较为理想。

Based on the ground temperature,air temperature,relative humidity,wind speed,precipitation,snow and other ground meteorological observation data of 16 meteorological stations near the expressway in the winter of 2000-2020 in Baoding area,this paper analyzed the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of road icing in Baoding area,and constructed the Baoding road icing prediction model.The results showed that the number of road icing days in Baoding area is“more in Northwest and less in Southeast”,which mainly occurs in January.The correlation analysis showed that the ground temperature is significantly correlated with air temperature,relative humidity,precipitation and 10 min average wind speed.The stepwise regression method is used to establish the winter ground temperature prediction model.Through comparative analysis and calculation,the variation trend of the fitted value of the model is generally consistent with the actual value,and the average absolute value error and root mean square error are small.It can be used as the ground temperature prediction model.The basic elements such as temperature,precipitation,wind speed and humidity are extracted from the intelligent grid prediction products of Hebei Province,and the road icing prediction model is tested.On the whole,the prediction effect is ideal.