新疆杨物候变化及其对喀什晚冬早春气温的响应分析

Phenological Change of Populus alba var.pyramidalis Bunge and Its Response to Late Winter and Early Spring Warming in Kashi

利用喀什国家基准气候站1982—2022年的气象观测数据和地面物候观测资料,采用气候倾向率和气候趋势系数方法,分析逐日平均气温、逐日最低气温的变化特征;木本植物选用新疆杨,对晚冬早春新疆杨物候期与气候变化的相互关系进行分析。结果表明:近43年来,喀什市新疆杨晚冬早春物候(花芽膨大期、花芽开放期、叶芽膨大期、叶芽开放期、开花始期)表现出不同程度的提前趋势;喀什市1982—2022年晚冬(1月上旬至2月上旬)旬平均气温、旬极端最低气温变化呈线下降趋势,早春(2月中旬至4月中旬)旬平均气温、旬极端最低气温呈线性上升趋势,上升趋势分别为0.5℃~1.3℃/10年、0.3℃~1.3℃/10年。

The daily annual average temperature,extreme minimum temperature and its effect on five species of woody plants such as Populus alba in Kashi were investigated using by climate trend coefficient and climate tendency ratio based on meteorological observational data and phenological observation data of ground in the national reference stations from 1982 to 2010of Kashi(39°28′N,75°59′E).The results showed that bud-expansion,bud opening,beginning of flowering of Populus alba were ahead of time,of first leaf date(FLD)in Kashi city(1982—2022)and the corresponding meteorological data to examine the spatiotemporal variations in leaf-out phenology of Populus alba,and to identify the major climatic factors driving such variations.the annual average temperature and minimum temperature in Kashi city increased from 1982 to 2022,the trends for annual average temperature and minimum temperature were 0.5℃~1.3℃/10 years and 0.3℃~1.3℃/10 years respectively.