非农就业、农业机械化与农业种植结构调整

Off-farm Employment, Agricultural Mechanization and Adjustment of Agricultural Planting Structure

农业种植结构关系着农业供给体系质量,是农业供给侧结构性改革的重点内容。基于2004—2015年全国农村固定观察点九省农户面板数据,在纠正了以往研究关于全国农村固定观察点面板数据衔接使用偏误的基础上,探究非农就业对农户农业种植结构的影响。研究结论表明:非农就业程度越高,农户越倾向于进行农业种植结构调整。作用机制分析表明,非农就业影响农户农业种植结构调整主要受到农业机械化的调节作用。非农就业程度越高的农户越倾向于种植农业机械化水平较高的农作物(如粮食作物),最终表现为农业种植结构多样化指数降低。建议应有序推进农业转移人口市民化,多措并举设计针对种粮农户的扶持政策,实现农业机械化的区域平衡发展。

Agricultural planting structure not only affects the quality of agricultural supply system, but also is the focus of agricultural supply side structural reform. Based on the panel data of farmers in nine provinces of National Fixed-site Rural Survey from 2004 to 2015, this paper explores the impact of off-farm employment on agricultural planting structure on the basis of correcting the errors in previous studies on the connection and use of panel data of National Fixed-site Rural Survey in rural areas. The results show that: the higher the degree of off-farm employment, the more inclined farmers are to adjust the planting structure. The mechanism analysis shows that off-farm employment affects the adjustment of agricultural planting structure, which is affected by the adjustment effect of agricultural mechanization. Farmers with higher degree of off-farm employment are more inclined to plant crops with high level of agricultural mechanization(such as grain), which will result in the decrease of diversification index of agricultural planting structure. In the future, the government should promote the citizenization of agricultural transfer population, design support policies for grain farmers, and achieve regional balanced development of agricultural mechanization.