区域环境治理压力、经济发展水平与碳中和绩效

Regional Environmental Governance Pressure,Economic Development Level and Carbon Neutral Performance

研究目标:研究中国30个省份环境治理压力、经济发展水平以及两者的协同效应对碳中和绩效的影响机理。研究方法:在固定效应模型与面板门槛模型的分析框架下,探讨碳中和绩效的线性和非线性变化特征,运用事件研究法借助双重差分模型研究碳减排政策的动态效应。研究发现:基准线性回归中区域环境治理压力、经济发展水平的独立效应阻滞碳中和绩效,但二者的协同效应显著提升碳中和绩效;囿于碳中和绩效可能呈现非线性的变化趋势,分别以三者为门槛变量进行检验发现,区域环境治理压力、经济发展水平作为门槛变量时不存在门槛效应,两者的协同效应为门槛变量时,协同效应对碳中和绩效具有非线性的促进作用;进一步研究表明,碳减排政策显著提高了试点地区的碳中和绩效,但政策的动态效应存在时滞性;东部、中部和西部地区碳中和绩效实现路径存在显著差异。研究创新:将区域环境治理压力、经济发展水平以及两者的协同效应纳入碳中和绩效分析框架,丰富了新时期双碳目标研究主题;从能源供给侧视阈下深入探究全国及东部、中部、西部地区碳中和绩效的区域差异和动态演进特征,揭示了碳中和绩效的不同发展轨迹。研究价值:据此,中央和地方政府应根据碳中和绩效发展历程因时施策,为构建全球碳秩序贡献中国智慧与中国方案。

Research Objectives:To study the impact mechanism of environmental governance pressure,economic development level and the synergistic effect of the two on carbon neutrality performance in 30 provinces and municipalities in China.Research Methods:Under the analysis framework of the fixed effect model and the panel threshold model,the linear and nonlinear characteristics of carbon neutrality performance are discussed,and the dynamic effect of carbon emission reduction policies is studied by means of the event study method and the double-difference model.Research Findings:In the benchmark linear regression,the independent effects of regional environmental governance pressure and economic development level hinder carbon neutrality performance,but the synergistic effect of the two significantly improves carbon neutrality performance.Taking the three as threshold variables,it is found that there is no threshold effect when regional environmental governance pressure and economic development level are used as threshold variables;Further research shows that carbon emission reduction policies have significantly improved the carbon neutrality performance in the pilot areas,but the dynamic effects of the policies have a time lag;there are significant differences in the realization paths of carbon neutrality performance in the eastern,central and western regions.Research Innovations:The pressure of regional environmental governance,the level of economic development and the synergistic effect of the two are incorporated into the carbon neutrality performance analysis framework,which enriches the research topics of the dual-carbon goal in the new era;from the perspective of energy supply,the country and the eastern,central and western regions are deeply explored.The regional differences and dynamic evolution characteristics of carbon neutrality performance reveal different development trajectories of carbon neutrality performance.Research Value:Based on this,the central and local governments should make timely policies according to the development trajectory of carbon neutrality performance,and contribute Chinese wisdom and Chinese solutions to the construction of a global carbon order.