公债支持的财政扩张影响国民经济的资本市场渠道

The Capital Market Channel through Which Fiscal Expansion Supported by Public Debt Affects the National Economy

研究目标:构建包含结构化资本市场的金融CGE模型,重点分析公债支持的财政扩张通过资本市场渠道对国民经济的影响。研究方法:构建了一个包含公债的结构化资本市场以及反映国民经济各主体在市场上统筹性地筹措及运用资金的金融CGE模型,通过模拟分析研究公债支持的财政扩张政策。研究发现:公债支持的财政支出扩张,无论是生产投资支出还是消费支出,都会对民间消费产生“挤出效应”而对其生产投资产生“挤入效应”,对生产投资的挤入效应将提高社会的资本形成速度进而提高经济增速。这是由于公债增发影响了资本市场结构,引导家庭为了保持其最优的资产组合而增加对其他金融资产的持有,令其金融投资曲线右移。这虽然导致家庭收入中用于消费的支出下降,但企业得以从资本市场上获得更多的资金,从而推动其生产投资的增长。研究创新:在分析框架中引入了包括公债在内的结构化资本市场以及市场中各类国民经济主体的统筹性的资金筹措及运用,考察了以公债所支持的财政扩张如何通过对资本市场的结构性影响而影响国民经济的“资本市场渠道”,对有关财政扩张是否挤入民间投资及其对经济增长的影响这一经典命题提供了补充性的讨论。研究价值:提出了财政政策影响国民经济的资本市场渠道,拓宽了关于财政政策实施条件及其影响的分析视野,拓展了对财政政策如何“加力提效”的认识宽度,为公债市场的建设完善对于畅通国民经济循环中的金融资本市场通路、健全宏观调控政策作用机制的战略重要性提供了新的认识角度。

Research Objectives:This paper constructs a financial CGE model including structured capital market,and focuses on the impact of fiscal expansion supported by government bonds on the national economy through the capital market channel.Research Methods:This paper constructs a financial CGE model that includes structured capital market with government bonds and reflects the economic agents raising and using funds as a whole in the market,and studies the fiscal expansion policy supported by government bonds by simulation analysis.Research Findings:The expansion of fiscal expenditure supported by government bonds,whether production investment expenditure or consumption expenditure,will have a“crowding out effect”on private consumption and a“crowding in effect”on production investment.The crowding in effect of production investment will improve the speed of social capital formation and then increase economic growth.This is because the issuance of government bonds affects the capital market structure,leads families to increase their holdings of other financial assets in order to maintain their optimal asset portfolio,and shifts their financial investment curve to the right.Although this leads to a decline in the expenditure on consumption in household income,enterprises can obtain more funds from the capital market,thus promote the growth of their production investment.Research Innovations:This paper introduces the structured capital market with government bonds and the economic agents raising and using funds as a whole into the analysis framework,studies the“capital market channel”how the fiscal expansion supported by government bonds affects the national economy through its structural impact on the capital market,and provides a supplementary discussion on the classical proposition of whether fiscal expansion crowds in private investment and its impact on economic growth.Research Value:This paper puts forward the capital market channels through which the fiscal policy affects the national economy,broadens the analytical vision of the implementation conditions and impact of the fiscal policy,expands the understanding of how to increase the intensity and efficacy of the fiscal policy,and provides a new understanding of the strategic importance of the construction and improvement of the bond market for unblocking the access of financial capital market in the national economic cycle and improving functioning mechanism of macroeconomic regulation policies.