摘要
Detailed projections of the Former Soviet Union(FSU)fossil fuel production has been created.Russian production has been modelled at the region(oblast)level where possible.The projections were made using the Geologic Resource Supply-Demand Model(GeRS-DeMo).Low,Best Guess and High scenarios were created.FSU fossil fuels are projected to peak between 2027 and 2087 with the range due to spread of Ultimately Recoverable Resources(URR)values used.The Best Guess(BG)scenario anticipates FSU will peak in 2087 with production over 170 EJ per year.The FSU projections were combined with rest of the world projections(Mohr et al.2015b),the emissions from the High scenario for the world are similar to the IPCC A1 AIM scenario.
基金
The authors wish to thank:Igor Kharitonov,Director,Department for Foreign Statistics and International Projects,Federal State Statistics Service,Rosstat.State Statistics Service,Main Department of Statistics in Donetsk Oblast.The Ukrainian Statistical agency UkrStat.gov.ua.
