中国城市高质量发展水平的测度及其驱动力分析

Measurement and Driving Forces for High-quality Development of Urbanization in China

从经济、创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享六维度构建城市高质量发展指标体系,通过熵值法对2004—2019年中国31省(自治区、直辖市)的城市高质量发展水平进行测度,运用全局空间自相关、冷热点法分析中国城市高质量发展水平的空间分布与空间关联性,同时采用地理探测器模型对其驱动因素进行分析。结果表明:(1)考察期内城市高质量发展水平总体平稳略有上升,沿海高内陆低,总体发展水平“东部>总体>中部>西部”。(2)城市高质量发展水平具有显著的空间集聚特征,整体呈现出“东热西冷”的空间分布特征,热点范围由“条带状”逐渐演变为“团状”,冷点范围则逐渐转移至西北部地区;热点对于周边地区存在辐射带动作用,热点区对冷点区存在“驱逐减弱”效应。(3)创新发展对城市高质量发展的影响力最强,其次是开放发展、协调发展和经济发展,绿色发展和共享发展的影响较弱;驱动因素之间的交互作用均大于单因子的独立作用。

This paper constructs the system of urban high-quality development index from the six dimensions of economy,innovation,coordination,green,open and sharing.It measures the high-quality development level of cities in 31 provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)of China from 2004 to 2019 by entropy method,analyzes the spatial distribution and spatial correlation of high-quality development level of Chinese cities by using global spatial auto-correlation and hot-spot analysis and analyzes its driving factors by geographical detector model.The results show that:(1)the overall change of high quality development level of cities during the period of investigation is stable and slightly increased.The regional level is high in the eastern coastal areas and low in the western remote areas.Overall level of development:the eastern part>overall>middle part>the west area.(2)The high-quality development level of the city has significant spatial agglomeration characteristics,and the overall spatial distribution characteristics is“East hot west cold”,hot spot range from“striped”gradually evolved into“clump”,while the cold point range gradually transferred to the northwest region;hot spots have radiation-driven effect on the surrounding areas,and hot spot district have a“eviction weakening”effect on cold spot areas.(3)Innovation has the strongest effect on the high-quality development of cities,followed by open development,coordinated development and economic development,while the impact of green development and shared development is weaker;and the interaction between driving factors is greater than the independent effect of single factors.