中国投资者多角度舆情分析及其在股市预测中的作用

Chinese Investors’Multi-perspective Sentiment Analysis and Its Role in Stock Market Forecasting

股市中存在与投资者舆情有关的非理性现象,舆情与股市关系的量化研究对发掘股市规律和辅助投资预测具有重要意义.本文基于论坛中的投资者发言,创新性地建立CNN-TLDA混合模型对舆情进行多角度量化分析,从积极度和关注主题两方面探究投资者舆情和股市的相互影响关系,并基于长短时记忆(LSTM)网络对舆情在股市预测中的作用进行探讨.研究表明:中国股市投资者普遍悲观,投资者乐观度和关注主题都与股市高度相关.多角度舆情分析使预测误差下降至41%.研究成果能够辅助投资者的投资决策,也能为股市中个体投资者舆情的分析与利用提供科学参考.

There are irrational phenomena related to investor sentiment in the stock market,and the quantitative study of investor sentiment and stock market is important for discovering stock market patterns and aiding investment forecasting.Based on the investor statements in forums,a CNN-TLDA hybrid model is innovatively built to quantify investor sentiment from multiple perspectives,and explore the interaction between investor sentiment and the stock market from both positive and topic.The roles of investor sentiment in forecasting are investigated based on LSTM(long short-term memory)network.It is shown that Chinese stock market investors are generally pessimistic,and both investor optimism and topics of interest are highly correlated with the stock market.The multi-perspective sentiment analysis reduces the prediction error to 41%.The results of the study can assist investors in their investment decisions and also provide a scientific reference for the analysis and utilization of individual investors′sentiment in the stock market.