“一带一路”沿线国家登革热流行情况及变化趋势研究

Epidemic situation and trend of dengue fever in Belt and Road countries

目的:分析2019年“一带一路”沿线国家登革热流行现状及2013-2019年登革热发病率变化趋势。方法:利用2019年全球疾病负担研究(GBD)登革热年龄标准化发病率(ASR)数据,描述2019年“一带一路”区域登革热流行现状,并计算2013-2019年ASR的年估计百分比变化(EAPC)评估流行趋势。结果:2019年GBD登革热数据显示145个“一带一路”沿线国家中93个(64.14%)国家有登革热流行。2019年登革热发病率>3 000.00/10万的国家共有11个,9个国家在大洋洲;其次16个国家发病率在1 000.00/10万~2 999.99/10万,10个国家在亚洲。非洲(58.14%,25/43)、北美洲(72.73%,8/11)及南美洲(66.67%,4/6)等区域的多数国家发病率在500.00/10万~999.99/10万。大洋洲90.00%(9/10)的国家登革热发病率为上升趋势,斐济上升趋势最明显(EAPC=18.22,95% CI:12.91~23.77);其次亚洲18.18%(4/22)的国家登革热发病率呈上升趋势,菲律宾上升趋势最明显(EAPC=3.09,95% CI:1.74~4.45);非洲4.65%(2/43)的国家登革热发病率呈上升趋势,塞舌尔上升趋势最明显(EAPC=18.20,95% CI:7.82~29.58);南美洲及北美洲国家登革热发病率无明显变化。 结论:2019年超过60%的“一带一路”沿线国家存在登革热流行,大洋洲多数国家发病率较高,且处于上升趋势;其次亚洲、非洲及美洲流行情况相对较轻。

Objective To analyze epidemic situation of dengue fever in 2019 and the incidence trends from 2013 to 2019 in the Belt and Road countries.Methods We used age-standardized incidence rate(ASR)which was from Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 to describe the epidemic situation of dengue fever in 2019.The estimated annual percentage change(EAPC)of the ASR was calculated to assess dengue fever incidence trends from 2013 to 2019.Results The 2019 GBD dengue fever incidence records showed that in 145 Belt and Road countries,93(64.14%)countries had dengue fever epidemics.In 2019,there were 11 countries with the incidence>3000.00 per 100000,including 9 countries in Oceania;16 countries with the incidence of 1000.00 per 100000-2999.99 per 100000,including 10 countries in Asia.The incidence rates in most countries in Africa(58.14%,25/43),North America(72.73%,8/11)and South America(66.67%,4/6)ranged from 500.00 per 100000 to 999.99 per 100000.The incidence rates of dengue fever in 90.00%(9/10)of countries in Oceania showed increasing trend,and the increasing trend in Fiji was most obvious(EAPC=18.22,95%CI:12.91-23.77),and the incidence rates of dengue fever in 18.18%(4/22)of countries in Asia showed increasing trend,the increasing trend in the Philippines was most obvious(EAPC=3.09,95%CI:1.74-4.45),and the incidence rates of dengue fever in 4.65%(2/43)of countries in Africa showed increasing trend,and the increasing trend in Seychelles was most obvious(EAPC=18.20,95%CI:7.82-29.58).The incidence rates of dengue fever showed no increasing trend in countries in South America and North America.Conclusions In 2019,more than 60%of the Belt and Road countries had dengue fever epidemics.The incidences of dengue fever were high and showed increasing trends in most Oceanian countries,but the dengue fever epidemics in the countries in Asia,Africa and Americas were relatively mild.