基于GIS与网络分析协同的城市火灾风险概率评估

Study on the probability assessment of urban fire risk based on GIS coupled with network analysis

火灾风险概率评估的精细化和定量化是风险评估的研究趋势。以某大型城市为研究对象,基于火灾影响因素致火因子、火灾承灾体、孕火环境和救援能力,通过GIS空间分析与网络分析技术相结合,对城区和森林区进行火灾风险概率评估,以提高评估结果的定量性、综合性和准确性。结果表明:城中心与新开发区的人口密度较高,并且高危单位密集,接出警密度达到74~348件/km^(2),火灾风险等级极高,需通过加快消防道路建设、设置防火隔离带、采用防火挑檐和热固性保温原材料等方式提高综合防火安全性;北部地区的救援密度较低,火灾风险等级高,且城市交界域较宽,应单独建消防站,并且加强救援队伍的软硬件基础;通过GIS与网络分析技术的协同,对致火因子、火灾承灾体、孕火环境和救援能力进行叠加,可提高火灾风险概率评估的精准度与可靠度。研究扩充了火灾风险概率评估方法,可以为城市消防安全布局和灭火救援分布提供技术支撑和参考依据。

Nowadays,the refinement and quantification of fire risk assessment are the research trend in fire risk assessment.In this study,a large city in China is taken as the research object,and four fire-affected factors including fire factors,fire-bearing body,fire pregnant environment,and fire rescue ability were considered to further improve the application of GIS spatial analysis technology.Based on the four affected factors above,GIS technology coupled with network analysis techniques were applied in fire risk probability assessment containing both urban and forest areas,which to improve the quantitative,comprehensive,and accuracy of the results of fire risk evaluation.The results show that both urban center and new development zone contain high population densities with dense high-risk companies,and the density of receiving and sending police in two places are around 74-348 pieces/km^(2),resulting in very high fire risk level.Hence,it is necessary to speed up the construction of fire road,set up fire isolation belt in city road,and adopt fire cornice and thermosetting insulation raw materials in high rise building,aiming to improve comprehensive fire safety.Considering the rescue density of the northern area in this city is very low while the fire risk level is still high and the urban boundary area is too broad,the fire station is suggested to be built in forest area separately,and the software and hardware foundation of the rescue team should be strengthened.Based on the superposition of fire factors,fire-bearing body,fire pregnant environment,and fire rescue ability,the application of GIS coupled with network analysis can improve the accuracy and reliability of fire risk assessment.This paper extends the method of fire risk assessment and provides technical support and a basis for urban fire safety layout and fire rescue distribution.