以监测报警数据驱动的综合管廊运维动态风险评价

Dynamic risk assessment for utility tunnel operation and maintenance driven by monitoring alarm data

运维风险评价是地下综合管廊运维管理的重要环节,既有方法以专家评价等静态数据为评价数据,侧重对算法改进以提升评价准确率,未考虑运营过程中管廊状态变化对评价结果的影响,难以反映管廊动态风险变化。提出了以监测报警数据驱动的综合管廊运维动态风险评价方法。建立管廊FMEA评价机制,以专家评价静态数据为基础,在管廊运维风险评价中引入传感监测动态数据;建立风险数据迭代方法,有效融合静态数据与动态数据,获得不断修正的动态风险数据,以反映实时风险状况。采用云模型-灰关联分析法实现风险排序,以处理管廊运维复杂风险关系并解决风险耦合问题。以变化最为频繁的环境质量监测数据为例,通过实际项目应用验证了新方法的有效性。

This paper proposes a dynamic risk assessment method driven by the dynamic data from sensor monitoring in terms of the utility tunnel operation and maintenance risk.First,FMEA is used to identify risks,analyze the complex risk sources and identify risk relationships,and then establish the FMEA assessment mechanism of utility tunnels.Based on expert assessments,this paper introduces dynamic monitoring data as assessment data.Besides,this study establishes a sensor monitoring data access mechanism and connects the monitoring data to the FMEA assessment mechanism in the form of the number of alarms.Subsequently,the cloud model is used to describe the above two types of data to deal with the data uncertainty caused by the objective environment and subjective assessment in the assessment process.The risk data iteration method is established based on the cloud-integrated algorithm.Based on the effective integration of dynamic data and static data,the risk data is iteratively corrected with continuously input dynamic data.The dynamic risk cloud output by the risk iteration method presents risk changes in the data and obtains continuously updated dynamic risk data to reflect the real-time risk status.Finally,the cloud model-grey correlation analysis method is used to obtain risk ranking to deal with the complex risk relationship of utility tunnel operation and maintenance and solve the risk coupling problem.This paper takes the most frequently changing environmental quality monitoring data as an example to verify the effectiveness of this method in actual project applications.The application case compares the static assessment result based on expert assessment data with the dynamic assessment result obtained by the method proposed in this paper.The results show that the dynamic assessment results can reflect the dynamic changes of risk based on retaining the characteristics of expert assessment,and are more in line with actual risk conditions.