基于模糊风险评估的台风灾害应急方案生成

Generation of typhoon disaster emergency alternative based on fuzzy risk assessment

为了解决台风灾害应急决策中风险评估复杂难测的问题,利用案例推理和模糊证据推理方法,研究台风灾害应急方案生成方法。通过案例相似度测算方法计算目标台风和历史台风之间的案例相似度,构建相似案例集;决策者对相似案例集的应急方案给出风险评估判断信息;利用模糊证据推理方法计算各相似历史案例的风险评估效用值,再集结群决策模式下的风险评估效用值;在此基础上,集结案例相似度和群决策风险评估效用值,检索出最合适的历史台风案例,并借此生成目标台风的应急方案。案例验证和结果比较表明该方法能够较好地处理台风灾害应急决策中风险评估的模糊信息,合理生成台风灾害应急方案,为应急管理提供参考。

To better solve the problem of the complicacy and unpredictability risk assessment in typhoon disaster emergency decision making(EDM),case-based reasoning(CBR)and fuzzy evidence reasoning were applied to study the method for the generation of typhoon disaster emergency alternative in this paper.First,CBR was used to calculate the case similarity between the target typhoon and the historical typhoon,and the case similarity was ranked to build a similar case set.Then,the risk assessment index system of emergency plans with similar case sets was established.The decision-maker gave the judgment information of the risk assessment index,calculates the risk assessment utility value by using the fuzzy evidence reasoning method and then aggregated the risk assessment utility value under the group decision-making model.Furthermore,case similarity and group decision risk assessment values were aggregated to retrieve the most appropriate historical typhoon case and the emergency alternative of the target typhoon was generated.The feasibility and practicability of the method were verified by case analysis of the data set in the China Meteorological Yearbook.The case analysis results showed that:(1)Similar typhoons extracted from considering typhoon hazard attributes were closer to the target typhoon;(2)By comparing the risk-free assessment with the risk assessment,it showed that a more reasonable solution could be generated by comprehensively considering the case similarity and risk assessment;(3)The comparison between single decision-making and group decision-making showed that group decision-making could overcome individual differences and obtain a decision-making scheme that was more in line with the actual situation;(4)The comparison between the judgment information of the language set and the judgment information of the exact number showed that the fuzzy evidence reasoning could be used to deal with the characteristics of the fuzzy information,which could be expressed more accurately;(5)The comparison between the actual plan of the target typhoon and the generated plan showed that the actual plan of the target typhoon was almost the same as the generated plan of the method in this paper.Therefore,the method presented in this paper could better deal with the fuzzy information of risk assessment in typhoon disaster emergency decision-making and reasonably generated typhoon disaster emergency plan,which provided a reference for emergency management.