粮食生产安全视角下黑龙江省耕地生态承载力评价及障碍因素诊断

Evaluation of cultivated land ecological carrying capacity and diagnosis of obstacle factors in Heilongjiang Province from the food production security perspective

为了深入了解黑龙江省保障粮食生产安全的耕地生态承载力状况,通过选取相关指标因子,从压力、状态、响应3个层面构建黑龙江省市级层面耕地生态承载力水平评价指标体系。采用加入时间变量的改进熵值法确定指标权重,并借助聚类分析、障碍度模型和ArcGIS等方法探求黑龙江省耕地生态承载力时空格局演变特征及障碍因素,结果表明:(1)时间尺度上,2009—2018年黑龙江省耕地生态承载力整体呈上升趋势,但多数区市耕地生态承载力水平仍然偏低;(2)空间尺度上,黑龙江省耕地生态承载力水平区域分异明显,整体上呈现中部低、东西部高空间格局分布;(3)障碍因素上,黑龙江省耕地生态承载力受经济发展水平、农业科技发展程度、人口密集度及自然条件等多种因素共同影响,各市各阶段耕地生态承载力影响因素略有不同。因地制宜分区分类调控耕地保护工作,并建立耕地保护动态监测系统是黑龙江省保障粮食生产安全和耕地生态安全的核心路径。

To deeply understand the ecological carrying capacity of cultivated land in Heilongjiang Province and ensure the safety of food production,we selected relevant index factors,and constructed an index system to evaluate the ecological carrying capacity of cultivated land from the three levels of pressure,state,and response.We used the improved entropy method to determine the weights of various indicators,and used cluster analysis,obstacle model,and ArcGIS to analyze the ecological carrying capacity of cultivated land and obstacle factors in Heilongjiang Province.The results show the followings.(1)On the time scale,the ecological carrying capacity of cultivated land in Heilongjiang Province shows an overall upward trend from 2009 to 2018,but the increase is relatively small,and the ecological carrying capacity of cultivated land in most cities has just reached the safe stage,and some cities are still in the early warning stage.(2)On the spatial scale,the ecological carrying capacity of cultivated land in Heilongjiang Province has obvious regional differences in different periods.The overall spatial distribution pattern is low in the central part and high in the east and west,and gradually develops from spatial agglomeration to spatially balanced development,and the spatial difference gradually decreases.(3)In terms of obstacle factors,the ecological carrying capacity of cultivated land is affected by various factors such as economic development level,agricultural technology development level,population density and natural conditions,and the influencing factors are slightly different in each city at each stage.Adjusting the protection of cultivated land according to local conditions and establishing a dynamic monitoring system for cultivated land protection is the core path for Heilongjiang Province to ensure the safety of food production and the ecological safety of cultivated land.