迁移成本对新生代农民工市民化意愿影响的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Migration Cost on the Citizenization Willingness of the New Generation of Migrant Workers

基于2018年中国流动人口动态监测数据,采用二元Logistic模型,从风险成本、精神成本、生计成本、社会融入成本四个维度实证分析迁移成本对新生代农民工落户意愿的影响,并进一步分析不同规模城市新生代农民工市民化意愿的异质性影响。研究数据表明:迁移成本对新生代农民工市民化意愿影响显著;其中,社会融入成本和收入水平与新生代农民工市民化意愿呈正相关,随迁子女教育困难、失业风险及住房风险与新生代农民工市民化意愿呈负相关。此外,收入水平对超大城市、大城市和中小城市新生代农民工市民化意愿均存在异质性影响。因此提出建议,即应加快完善新生代农民工就业和住房保障、落实城乡公共福利和教育资源均衡发展,进而推进以人为核心的新型城镇化。

Based on the dynamic monitoring data of China’s floating population in 2018,the binary Logistic model is used to empirically analyze the impact of migration cost on the willingness of the new generation of migrant workers to settle down from four dimensions:risk cost,spiritual cost,livelihood cost,and social integration cost,and analyze the different heterogeneous influence of the willingness to become a citizen of the new generation of migrant workers in large-scale cities.The research data shows that the migration cost has a significant impact on the willingness of the new generation of migrant workers to become citizens.Among them,the cost of social integration and the level of income are positively correlated with the willingness of the new generation of migrant workers to become a citizen,and the educational difficulties,and the unemployment risk and the cost of purchasing a house are negatively correlated with the willingness of the new generation of migrant workers to become a citizen.In addition,income levels have a heterogeneous impact on the willingness of the new generation of migrant workers to become citizens in megacities,large cities,and small and medium-sized cities.Therefore,suggestions are put forward to accelerate the improvement of employment and housing security for the new generation of migrant workers,implement the balanced development of urban and rural public welfare and educational resources,and then promote a new type of urbanization with people as the core.