吉林省集中供暖行业多年碳排放规律研究

Study on Multi-Year Carbon Emission Law of Central Heating Industry in Jilin Province

北方地区冬季漫长,供暖期长达170 d左右,且存在大量燃煤锅炉,供暖需求十分巨大。在我国全面建设社会主义现代化强国和“碳达峰、碳中和”2个远景目标的共同要求下,选取典型城市,分析了集中供暖行业煤炭消费规律及碳排放规律。结果表明:吉林省集中供暖行业的需求并没有达到饱和,锅炉数量逐年上升,且以大型燃煤锅炉为主,热电联产形式的供热只适用于部分地区,不适合全域推广,行业碳排放量主要集中在中部和东部地区的长春市(834.2万t/a)、吉林市(787万t/a)、延边州(414.4万t/a)和辽源市(251万t/a)4个人口聚集型城市,且碳排放量并未达峰。研究结果可为推动北方地区实现双碳目标提供科学依据。

The northern region has a long winter.The heating period is about 170 days,and there are a large number of coal-fired boilers,so the heating demand is very huge.Under the common requirements of China's comprehensive construction of a socialist modern power and the two long-term goals of"carbon peak and carbon neutralization",the coal consumption law and carbon emission of the industry are analyzed based on the multi-year change characteristics of urban central heating in Jilin Province.The research results show that the demand of central heating industry in Jilin Province has not reached saturation,and the number of boilers has increased year by year,mainly large coal-fired boilers.The heat supply in the form of cogeneration is only applicable to some regions and is not suitable for global promotion.The carbon emission of the industry is mainly concentrated in four population concentrated cities in the central and eastern regions:Changchun(8.342×104t/y),Jilin(7.87×104t/y),Yanbian(4.144×104t/y)and Liaoyuan(2.51×104t/y),and the carbon emission has not reached the peak.The research results provide scientific basis for promoting the realization of double carbon goal in northern China.