疫情冲击下消费券政策效果评估与特征研究

The Research on the Assessment of Effectiveness and Characteristics of Consumption Coupon Policy under COVID-19

为应对新冠疫情对经济造成的冲击,发行消费券成为地方政府提振消费、稳定经济运行的政策选择。本文依据2020年2月至12月全国9个省份共56个城市的月度数据为研究样本,基于多期双重差分模型、三重差分模型及合成控制法分析消费券的总体政策效果与定向发行的影响特征。研究结果表明:消费券政策对提振零售消费起到显著的正向推动效果;消费券政策作用具有滞后性,该现象与各城市数字化政务建设的水平和群众消费偏好有关;在连续多期发行的情况下,定向发行消费券相对于非定向发行的拉动作用更大,影响效果更理想,而非定向发行的城市在后期的消费增长速度较前者同期更快,增长趋势更强劲。同时,通过核验2021年消费券政策刺激效应的结果表明,在疫情持续冲击且政府长期多次发行的情况下,消费券仍能有效刺激消费。为此,建议在各地的消费券政策设计中,应该进一步提升对低收入群体的精准定向投放力度,加快推进数字化政务建设,提高群众对惠民政策信息的获取速度和广度。

In order to deal with the negative impact of COVID-19 on the economy,issuing consumption coupon has become a widely used policy option for local government to boost consumption and stabilize the economy.Based on the monthly data of 56 cities in 9 provinces in China from February to December 2020,this study analyzes the overall policy effect and the characteristics of the impact of directional issuance based on a multi-period difference-in-difference model(DID),difference-in-difference-in-difference model(DDD)and Synthetic Control Method(SCM).The results show that the policy of consumption coupon has a significant positive effect on boosting retail consumption;The effect of consumption coupon policy has effectiveness for a given period of time,which is related to the degree of completion of digital government construction and people’s consumption preference;The directional issuance of consumer bonds has a greater driving effect than the non-directional issuance,while the retail sales of non-directional one grew faster than the former in the same period;The verification of the data in 2021 shows that under the continuous impact of COVID-19 and the long-term multiple issuance by the government,consumption coupon can still effectively stimulate the consumption.Therefore,it is suggested that government should further improve the precise and targeted delivery of low-income groups,accelerate the construction of digital government affairs,improve the speed and breadth of people’s access to beneficial policies in the process of designing and issuing consumption coupon.