低碳城市与可再生能源技术创新

Low⁃carbon cities and renewable energy technology innovation

碳达峰与碳中和目标不仅是中国积极应对气候变化的国策,也是基于科学论证的中长期国家发展战略,而可再生能源技术创新是实现“双碳”目标的重要技术组成部分。现有针对可再生能源技术创新的研究大多基于跨国数据、中国整体以及省级数据的分析,基于城市层面数据的讨论还较少且多数停留在传统的计量经济学层面,文章基于中国285个城市2010—2019年2850个观测值的面板数据,运用空间双重差分法评估低碳城市试点政策对可再生能源技术创新的影响。实证结果表明:①空间相关性分析显示,中国城市可再生能源技术创新具有显著为正的空间相关性,呈现出“高−高”型和“低−低”型聚集模式;②基准回归结果显示,低碳城市试点政策显著促进了城市可再生能源技术创新;③空间双重差分结果表明,低碳城市试点政策对可再生能源技术创新产生空间溢出效应,政策效应同时受到来自地理上相近城市以及经济发展水平相近城市的影响;④基于城市规模的异质性分析得到,低碳城市试点政策对人均GDP在5万~10万元的城市驱动作用最强;基于经济集聚区域的异质性分析得到,京津冀城市群的政策直接效应显著但空间溢出效应不显著,而长江经济带和粤港澳大湾区的政策直接效应和空间效应均显著,但空间效应存在地理和经济上的差异。该研究探索了城市可再生能源技术创新的时空演变特征,以期为中国采取更有效的路径与政策实现碳达峰与碳中和目标提供决策参考。

The dual goals of achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality are not only China’s national policy to actively respond to climate change,but also a medium-term and long-term national development strategy based on scientific evidence.Renewable energy technology innovation is an important technical component to achieve the dual goals.The existing research on renewable energy technol‑ogy innovation is mostly based on cross-country data and China’s national and provincial data.There are few discussions based on the data at the municipal level,and they mostly stay at the traditional econometric level.Based on the panel data of 2850 observations in China from 2010 to 2019,this study evaluated the impact of the low-carbon city pilot policy on renewable energy technology innovation,using the spatial difference-in-differences model.The empirical results showed that:①The spatial correlation analysis revealed that China’s urban renewable energy technology innovation had a significantly positive spatial correlation,showing a high-high or low-low aggregation model.②Benchmark regression results showed that the low-carbon city pilot policy significantly promoted the technologi‑cal innovation of urban renewable energy.③The results of the spatial difference-in-differences model showed that the low-carbon city pilot policy had a spatial spillover effect on renewable energy technology innovation,and the policy effect was affected by cities with similar geographical proximity or similar economic development level.④Based on the heterogeneity analysis of city size,the low-car‑bon city pilot policy had the strongest driving effect on cities with a per capita GDP of 50000−100000 yuan.Based on the heterogene‑ity analysis of economic agglomeration areas,the policy direct effect of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration was significant,and the spatial spillover effect was not significant,while the policy direct effect and spatial effect of the Yangtze River Economic Belt and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area were significant,but the spatial effect had differences between geographically and eco‑nomically.The study explored the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of urban renewable energy technology innovation with a view to providing a decision-making reference for China to adopt more effective paths and policies to achieve the dual goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality.