中国对澳大利亚大麦实施反倾销反补贴措施的贸易效应

Study on the Trade Effects of China’s Anti-dumping and Anti-subsidy Against Imported Barley from Australia

自2020年5月19日起中国对原产于澳大利亚(简称“中对澳”)的进口大麦加征反倾销反补贴(简称“‘双反’”)关税,为分析中对澳加征“双反”关税的贸易效应及其对中国大麦产业的保护效果,基于2015—2021年中国海关大麦进口月度数据,利用LA-AIDS模型进行评估。研究发现,中对澳加征“双反”关税不仅对澳大利亚大麦产生了贸易限制作用,而且对法国与加拿大大麦产生了贸易转移效应,对其他国家大麦产生了贸易创造效应,刺激乌克兰、阿根廷、乌拉圭、俄罗斯等非传统进口来源国大麦进入中国市场;中对澳加征“双反”关税具有贸易调查效应,在立案调查阶段和裁决生效阶段对中国自澳大利亚进口大麦具有负向影响,对中国自其他非传统贸易国进口大麦具有正向影响,且这种贸易调查效应在立案调查阶段主要体现在价格边际上,在裁决生效阶段主要体现在数量边际上;中国对各大麦进口来源国并不存在刚性依赖,原产于澳大利亚、法国、加拿大的大麦相互间可替代性较强,且中国在与法国和加拿大的大麦贸易中存在较大要价空间;“双反”措施在短期内对中国大麦产业具有贸易救济和保护作用,但其长期影响尚待观察。为促进中国大麦产业可持续发展,应合理利用贸易救济措施,优化进口结构,着力化解贸易转移效应的不利影响。

On May 19th,2020,China began to impose anti-dumping and anti-subsidy tariffs on barley imported from Australia. Based on the monthly barley import data of China Customs from 2015 to 2021,the authors use the LA-AIDS model to evaluate the trade and economic effects of China’s anti-dumping and anti-subsidy on imported barley from Australia and its protection effect on China’s barley industry. The research shows that:first,China’s imposition of anti-dumping and anti-subsidy tariffs on imported barley from Australia not only has a trade restrictive effect on the imported barley from Australia,but also has a trade transfer effect on the imported barley from France and Canada and a trade creation effect on other countries,which stimulating other non-traditional import source countries,such as Ukraine,Argentina,Uruguay and Russia,to enter Chinese barley market;second,these tariffs have a trade investigation effect,which has the negative impact on the imported barley from Australia in the filing investigation stage and the effective stage of the ruling,and has the positive impact on the imported barley from other non-traditional import source countries,and the trade investigation effect is mainly reflected in the price margin in the filing investigation stage and in the quantity margin in the effective stage of the ruling;third,for China,there is no rigid dependence on imported barley from every country,the substitution of imported barley from Australia,France and Canada is high,and there are significant space of asking price for China in terms of the imported barley from France and Canada;and fourth,the imposition of anti-dumping and anti-subsidy tariffs have the trade remedy protection effect on China’s barley industry in the short term,but its long-term impact remains to be observed. Therefore,to promote the sustainable development of China’s barley industry,we should make reasonable use of trade remedy measures,optimize import structure,and pay attention to resolving the adverse effects of trade transfer.