摘要
基于2014—2020年全球49个主要经济体的数字贸易数据,构建了6个一级指标22个具体指标的数字贸易发展指数评价体系,使用熵权法测算权重,利用描述性统计分析、核密度估计方法,力图对各国的数字贸易发展情况的动态演进进行刻画,并采用面板回归分析对影响数字贸易发展指数的因素进行了检验。研究结果发现,2014—2020年,美国和韩国数字贸易发展指数均保持在世界前列,欧美发达国家的数字贸易发展优于发展中国家和新兴经济体的数字贸易发展情况;中国在数字创新和数字贸易规模方面具有较强的优势,但是数字贸易壁垒仍然较高,数字安全和数字技能方面仍与发达国家具有一定的差距;全球49个样本国家的数字贸易发展情况存在一定的分化现象,但非均衡性缩小;数字贸易发展受到经济发展水平、城市化进程、产业结构升级、对外开放程度、制度质量、数字贸易规则深度的影响,并且对发达国家和发展中国家具有异质性的影响。提出新时代中国数字贸易发展的政策建议,应有序提高数字贸易开放程度、积极参与数字贸易规则相关谈判、健全数字贸易安全保障体系、加快数字基础设施建设、推进数字贸易人才的培养。
Based on the digital trade data of 49 major economies in the world from 2014 to 2020,this study constructs an evaluation system of digital trade development with 6 first-class indexes and 22 specific indexes.The entropy weight method is used to calculate the weights,descriptive statistical analysis and kernel density estimation method are used to depict the dynamic evolution of digital trade development in various countries,and the panel regression analysis is used to test the factors that influence the digital trade development index.The results show that:the digital trade development indices of the United States and South Korea remain in the forefront of the world from 2014 to 2020.The digital trade development of developed countries in Europe and America is better than that of developing countries.According to the score of China′s digital trade development index,China has strong advantages in digital innovation and digital trade scale,but the barriers to digital trade are still high,and there is still a certain gap between China and developed countries in digital security and digital skills.From the dynamic evolution of digital trade development in various countries around the world,the digital trade development in 49 sample countries is divided to some extent,but the imbalance is reduced.From the perspective of influencing factors,the development of digital trade is influenced by the level of economic development,the process of urbanization,the upgrading of industrial structure and the degree of opening to the outside world,and it has a heterogeneous influence on developed countries and developing countries.Finally,this study puts forward some relevant policy suggestions for the development of China′s digital trade,such as orderly improving the openness of digital trade,participating in negotiations related to digital trade rules,perfecting the security system of digital trade,further accelerating the construction of China′s digital infrastructure and promoting the training of digital trade talents.
作者
冯宗宪
段丁允
FENG Zongxian;DUAN Dingyun(School of Economics and Finance,Xi′an Jiaotong University,Xi′an 710061,China)
出处
《北京工业大学学报(社会科学版)》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第4期100-117,共18页
Journal of Beijing University of Technology (Social Sciences Edition)
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目(19AJY001)。
关键词
数字贸易
数字贸易发展指数
数字经济
全球经济发展
digital trade
digital trade development index
digital economy
global economic development