基于贝叶斯时空层次模型的中国宏观税负时空演化特征研究

Study on the Spatio-temporal Evolution of China’s Macro Tax Burden Based on BSHM

采用贝叶斯时空层次模型,从总体变化趋势、空间分布格局和局部变化特征三个层面分析了2000—2012年、2012—2019年两个阶段中国31个省域宏观税负的时空演化特征,得出了更为系统的新结论。21世纪以来,中国宏观税负总体变化表现为倒U型演化特征,2012年营改增试点改革后倒U型拐点出现。中国宏观税负空间分布格局表现出“中部洼地”和“东部高地”的区域非均衡性。营改增试点改革后,总体宏观税负下降的同时,区域非均衡性有所扩大,税负“高地”峰度更高,“洼地”深度更深,税负“高地”和“洼地”都具有扩围特征,税负“洼地”扩围更大。因此,要高度重视宏观税负发展的不平衡性,密切关注宏观税负时空演化特征,把握经济和社会发展的全局,细分不同地区和不同行业实施差异化税负政策,落实结构性、普惠性减税政策的同时,要兼顾财政可持续性和税负的区域平衡性。

From three perspectives of overall change trend, spatial distribution pattern and local change, based on two stages of 2000-2012 and 2012-2019,using the Bayesian-temporal and Spatial Hierarchical Model(BSHM),the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of macro tax burdens in 31 provinces in Chinese mainland are analyzed, the systematic new conclusions reaches are: since the new century, the overall change of China’s macro tax burden has been characterized by an inverted U-shaped evolution, and the inflection point appeared after 2012,the year of pilot reform of China’s VAT.The spatial distribution pattern of China’s macro tax burden shows the regional imbalance of the “central depression” and the “eastern highland”.After the pilot reform of the VAT reform, the overall macro tax burden declined, and the regional imbalance expanded.The kurtosis of “Highland” is higher and the swales of the “depression” is deeper, both “highland” and “depression” have the characteristics of expansion, and “depression” of tax burden has expanded more.Therefore, the imbalance of the development of the macro tax burden should be highly valued, the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of the macro tax burden should be closely watched.Differentiated tax policies that differ from regions and industries should be implemented based on the overall situation of economic and social development.The fiscal sustainability and the balance of regional tax burden should be taken into consideration while the structural and inclusive tax reduction policies are implemented.